The Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) retreated in October, falling to 49.2 points from 50.8 points in September.

The Absa PMI is a monthly indicator of South Africa’s economic trends in the manufacturing sector based on business surveys. A value above 50 signals expansion, while a value below 50 indicates contraction.

Manufacturing firms continue to face subdued domestic demand, with respondents describing an unusually quiet market for this time of year. Export activity offered little relief as global demand faltered, compounded by American trade tariffs and ongoing logistical bottlenecks at South Africa’s ports and railways.

The PMI’s underlying subindexes revealed the extent of the sector’s persistent challenges.

The business activity subindex dropped sharply to 49.4 points in October, from 54.4 points in September. The subindex now shows that activity on this measure has been in contraction for nine of the ten months of this year.

The new sales orders subindex fell to 48.9 points from 52.9 points. This subindex has contracted in eight out of ten months in 2025.

The supplier deliveries subindex edged down to 53.5 points from 54.9 points.

The employment subindex remained firmly in contractionary territory at 45.1 points from 43.0 points in September, with firms hesitant to expand their workforce.

Notably, the subindex for expectations for business conditions six months ahead slumped to 46.1 points from 54.4 points, marking the weakest outlook since April, suggesting little immediate relief for manufacturers.

Bheki Mahlobo, an economist, told The Common Sense that the manufacturing data was a timely reminder to policymakers that South Africa’s broader industrial policy investment environment remained hostile. Mahlobo said that reforms including concessioning ports and railways, removing black economic empowerment compliance costs, getting a grip on energy and water costs, and creating a generally more buoyant domestic economy were necessary in order to drive the index well above the 50-points mark.