Iran War Update: A Fragile Ceasefire Raises New Questions Around Economic and Market Implications

A fragile two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran is holding in name, but is under strain, as both sides contest its terms and signal readiness to escalate if negotiations fail. The economic and market implications, however, likely remain in line with the two most probable scenarios sketched by this newspaper at the start of the conflict.

THE EDITORIAL BOARD

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10.4.2026

Nearly Half of South Africans Feel Politically Homeless

POLLING CORRESPONDENT -

10.4.2026

Space - the Final Frontier to Controlling Military and Economic Balance on Earth

THE EDITORIAL BOARD -

10.4.2026

MK Pushes EWC While FF+ Warns of 1994 Settlement Unravelling

POLITICS DESK -

10.4.2026

New History Curriculum Risks Turning Inward as Global Content Cut

WARWICK GREY -

10.4.2026

Makin Sense Of Iran Hysteria, South Africa's Greatest Investor, Cadre Deployment, and The Space Race

GABRIEL MAKIN

- 10.4.2026

War Reality Diverges Sharply From Self-Loathing Western Global Headlines

THE EDITORIAL BOARD

- 9.4.2026

BEE Overhaul Risks Narrowing Inclusion and Stifling Growth

NEWS DESK

- 9.4.2026

Reform UK Leads Latest British Poll as Labour Slips to Fourth

POLITICS DESK

- 9.4.2026

Global Democracy Slide Pauses in 2025 – Report

NEWS DESK

- 9.4.2026

DAVID ANSARA

Decision Time for the Democratic Alliance

David Ansara writes on the DA's Federal Congress this weekend.

SIMON LINCOLN READER

The Meaning of Natie Kirsh as an Antidote to the Chaos of Current Politics

Simon Lincoln Reader writes on Natie Kirsh’s success and what it tells you about modern politics.

THE EDITORIAL BOARD

The Common Sense's Diary

GREG MILLS, RAY HARTLEY, AND JD MOLINA

South Africa Could Learn from Uribe’s Colombian Playbook

RICHARD TREN

Dispatch from Washington

DAVID ANSARA

The One Thing Investors Care About

SHRTS

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PLLING

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Jo'burgers Think DA Will Improve Services

Most people in Johannesburg have faith in the DA to improve services but does that mean they will win the city?

POLLING CORRESPONDENT

South Africans Like Possible DA-ANC Municipal Coalitions

A potential government of local unity between the ANC and DA is popular among South Africans.

POLLING CORRESPONDENT

Race For Johannesburg Led By DA

DA leads Jo'burg mayoral race.

POLLING CORRESPONDENT

ANC Faces Wipeout in eThekwini

The party could win less than 10% of the vote in eThekwini, according to latest polling.

MARIUS ROODT

Is South Africa Heading in the Right Direction

Most South Africans Say Country is on the Wrong Track

POLLING CORRESPONDENT

Most Pressing Issues for South Africans

A brief overview of the key issues currently affecting South Africa.

POLLING CORRESPONDENT

Frustration with Ramaphosa's Leadership: Can ANC Strengthen by Replacing Him?

Frustration with Ramaphosa's indecisiveness could strengthen ANC support if the party replaces him with a more decisive, reform-focused leader.

POLLING CORRESPONDENT

Motsepe Leads ANC Leadership Race on Favourability

New SRF polling finds Patrice Motsepe has the strongest favourability among three possible ANC leadership contenders, while Mbalula and Mashatile record higher negative ratings.

POLLING CORRESPONDENT

ANC Leads DA by 11 Points in Latest Poll

Both the ANC and DA poll at close to their May 2024 vote shares.

POLLING CORRESPONDENT

Jo'burgers Think DA Will Improve Services

Most people in Johannesburg have faith in the DA to improve services but does that mean they will win the city?

POLLING CORRESPONDENT

South Africans Like Possible DA-ANC Municipal Coalitions

A potential government of local unity between the ANC and DA is popular among South Africans.

POLLING CORRESPONDENT

Race For Johannesburg Led By DA

DA leads Jo'burg mayoral race.

POLLING CORRESPONDENT

ANC Faces Wipeout in eThekwini

The party could win less than 10% of the vote in eThekwini, according to latest polling.

MARIUS ROODT

Is South Africa Heading in the Right Direction

Most South Africans Say Country is on the Wrong Track

POLLING CORRESPONDENT

Most Pressing Issues for South Africans

A brief overview of the key issues currently affecting South Africa.

POLLING CORRESPONDENT

Frustration with Ramaphosa's Leadership: Can ANC Strengthen by Replacing Him?

Frustration with Ramaphosa's indecisiveness could strengthen ANC support if the party replaces him with a more decisive, reform-focused leader.

POLLING CORRESPONDENT

Motsepe Leads ANC Leadership Race on Favourability

New SRF polling finds Patrice Motsepe has the strongest favourability among three possible ANC leadership contenders, while Mbalula and Mashatile record higher negative ratings.

POLLING CORRESPONDENT

ANC Leads DA by 11 Points in Latest Poll

Both the ANC and DA poll at close to their May 2024 vote shares.

POLLING CORRESPONDENT

Jo'burgers Think DA Will Improve Services

Most people in Johannesburg have faith in the DA to improve services but does that mean they will win the city?

POLLING CORRESPONDENT

South Africans Like Possible DA-ANC Municipal Coalitions

A potential government of local unity between the ANC and DA is popular among South Africans.

POLLING CORRESPONDENT

Race For Johannesburg Led By DA

DA leads Jo'burg mayoral race.

POLLING CORRESPONDENT

ANC Faces Wipeout in eThekwini

The party could win less than 10% of the vote in eThekwini, according to latest polling.

MARIUS ROODT

Is South Africa Heading in the Right Direction

Most South Africans Say Country is on the Wrong Track

POLLING CORRESPONDENT

Most Pressing Issues for South Africans

A brief overview of the key issues currently affecting South Africa.

POLLING CORRESPONDENT

Frustration with Ramaphosa's Leadership: Can ANC Strengthen by Replacing Him?

Frustration with Ramaphosa's indecisiveness could strengthen ANC support if the party replaces him with a more decisive, reform-focused leader.

POLLING CORRESPONDENT

Motsepe Leads ANC Leadership Race on Favourability

New SRF polling finds Patrice Motsepe has the strongest favourability among three possible ANC leadership contenders, while Mbalula and Mashatile record higher negative ratings.

POLLING CORRESPONDENT

ANC Leads DA by 11 Points in Latest Poll

Both the ANC and DA poll at close to their May 2024 vote shares.

POLLING CORRESPONDENT

Jo'burgers Think DA Will Improve Services

Most people in Johannesburg have faith in the DA to improve services but does that mean they will win the city?

POLLING CORRESPONDENT

South Africans Like Possible DA-ANC Municipal Coalitions

A potential government of local unity between the ANC and DA is popular among South Africans.

POLLING CORRESPONDENT

Race For Johannesburg Led By DA

DA leads Jo'burg mayoral race.

POLLING CORRESPONDENT

ANC Faces Wipeout in eThekwini

The party could win less than 10% of the vote in eThekwini, according to latest polling.

MARIUS ROODT

Is South Africa Heading in the Right Direction

Most South Africans Say Country is on the Wrong Track

POLLING CORRESPONDENT

Most Pressing Issues for South Africans

A brief overview of the key issues currently affecting South Africa.

POLLING CORRESPONDENT

Frustration with Ramaphosa's Leadership: Can ANC Strengthen by Replacing Him?

Frustration with Ramaphosa's indecisiveness could strengthen ANC support if the party replaces him with a more decisive, reform-focused leader.

POLLING CORRESPONDENT

Motsepe Leads ANC Leadership Race on Favourability

New SRF polling finds Patrice Motsepe has the strongest favourability among three possible ANC leadership contenders, while Mbalula and Mashatile record higher negative ratings.

POLLING CORRESPONDENT

ANC Leads DA by 11 Points in Latest Poll

Both the ANC and DA poll at close to their May 2024 vote shares.

POLLING CORRESPONDENT

VIDES

VIEW ALL

Does The DA Need A Shakeup?

THE COMMON SENSE

-

9.4.2026

Explaining The Upcoming DA Congress

THE COMMON SENSE

-

5.4.2026

The United States Supreme Court Win For Free Speech

THE COMMON SENSE

-

3.4.2026

The Tragedy Of South Africa's Declining Marriage Rate

THE COMMON SENSE

-

31.3.2026

Unpacking National Polling Results - The Common Sense Plus (Subscriber Only)

THE COMMON SENSE

-

30.3.2026

Does The DA Need A Shakeup?

THE COMMON SENSE

-

9.4.2026

Explaining The Upcoming DA Congress

THE COMMON SENSE

-

5.4.2026

The United States Supreme Court Win For Free Speech

THE COMMON SENSE

-

3.4.2026

The Tragedy Of South Africa's Declining Marriage Rate

THE COMMON SENSE

-

31.3.2026

Unpacking National Polling Results - The Common Sense Plus (Subscriber Only)

THE COMMON SENSE

-

30.3.2026

The War on Iran

The War in Iran and the Strait of Hormuz: Six Scenarios and How They Will Shape the Global Economy

In this Special Report, The Common Sense sets out six detailed scenarios for the war in Iran together with the global and market implications.

FRANS CRONJE

-

10.4.2026

Iran Blinks First - Agrees to Open Hormuz

FOREIGN DESK

How the US Pulled a Downed Airman Out of Iran

NEWS DESK

Why Iran War is Not At This Stage The Global Catastrophe It Is Being Made Out To Be

FOREIGN DESK

The Strait of Hormuz is Not Open Until Insurers Say It is

WARWICK GREY

Iran Blinks First - Agrees to Open Hormuz

FOREIGN DESK

How the US Pulled a Downed Airman Out of Iran

NEWS DESK

Why Iran War is Not At This Stage The Global Catastrophe It Is Being Made Out To Be

FOREIGN DESK

The Strait of Hormuz is Not Open Until Insurers Say It is

WARWICK GREY

PLITICS

VIEW ALL

Nearly Half of South Africans Feel Politically Homeless

An Ipsos survey conducted in the first quarter of this year finds that a large share of South Africans do not identify with any political party, pointing to a deepening disconnect between voters and the country’s political leadership.

POLLING CORRESPONDENT

MK Pushes EWC While FF+ Warns of 1994 Settlement Unravelling

POLITICS DESK

New History Curriculum Risks Turning Inward as Global Content Cut

WARWICK GREY

BEE Overhaul Risks Narrowing Inclusion and Stifling Growth

NEWS DESK

Reform UK Leads Latest British Poll as Labour Slips to Fourth

POLITICS DESK

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GLBAL

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The War in Iran and the Strait of Hormuz: Six Scenarios and How They Will Shape the Global Economy

In this Special Report, The Common Sense sets out six detailed scenarios for the war in Iran together with the global and market implications.

FRANS CRONJE

Reform UK Leads Latest British Poll as Labour Slips to Fourth

POLITICS DESK

Global Democracy Slide Pauses in 2025 – Report

NEWS DESK

Iran Blinks First - Agrees to Open Hormuz

FOREIGN DESK

The Furthest Journey Ever Was Also a Warning Shot Across the Hormuz of Space

WARWICK GREY

PDCASTS

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Makin Sense Of Iran Hysteria, South Africa's Greatest Investor, Cadre Deployment, and The Space Race

THE COMMON SENSE

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10.4.2026

The Future Of The ANC - The Common Sense Plus

THE COMMON SENSE

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7.4.2026

Makin Sense Of The DA Congress, Solving SA's Crime Problem, The BBC and Free Speech

THE COMMON SENSE

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6.4.2026

Running To Be The DA's Deputy Federal Chairperson - Nicholas Nyati

THE COMMON SENSE

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4.4.2026

Makin Sense Of Iran Hysteria, South Africa's Greatest Investor, Cadre Deployment, and The Space Race

THE COMMON SENSE

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10.4.2026

The Future Of The ANC - The Common Sense Plus

THE COMMON SENSE

-

7.4.2026

Makin Sense Of The DA Congress, Solving SA's Crime Problem, The BBC and Free Speech

THE COMMON SENSE

-

6.4.2026

Running To Be The DA's Deputy Federal Chairperson - Nicholas Nyati

THE COMMON SENSE

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4.4.2026

ECNOMICS

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BEE Overhaul Risks Narrowing Inclusion and Stifling Growth

A renewed push to tighten South Africa’s Broad-Based Black Economic Empowerment framework is facing strong criticism, with warnings that it may undermine the very goals it seeks to advance.

NEWS DESK