Frans Cronje has re-run The Common Sense scenarios for South Africa to 2034, three months after they were first modelled. The enclave future stays the benchmark at odds of 65%; the reform upside is cut from 20% to 15%; the downside rises from 15% to 20%. In this subscribers-only conversation with Gabriel Makin, he explains what changed: an ANC whose administration is breaking down, branches defying Luthuli House, an alternative EFF-MK-ANC coalition already governing in Gauteng, no ANC-DA pact for November’s local elections, and a state still unwilling to strike a trade deal with the Americans or stop taxing capital. He sets out the markers to watch, why the DA’s real competitor is the enclaves rather than the ANC, and how families and businesses should position themselves for the chance of a long and successful future here.