A week ago, I sat down with Moeletsi Mbeki, the forthright analyst and brother of former president Thabo Mbeki, to talk frankly about the future of South Africa.

In an era defined by drift and growing popular frustration, Mbeki offered no comfort to those hoping for an African National Congress (ANC) turnaround. “The ANC model was always about consumption for the African middle class that owns no assets and uses the state for its consumption,” he told me. That economic model, he argued, led to a bloated public sector, declining private investment, and an economy steadily losing ground.

Mbeki’s critique is not just historical. He believes the central flaw of post-1994 governance was to prioritise patronage for a small political elite over policies that could have delivered real growth and inclusion.

“The real intention was not to uplift the masses but to enrich a small clique; everyone else saw through it. That’s why the ANC’s support is crumbling,” he said. The result, he argued, is a fractured society: “The ANC lost power because it alienated coloured, Indian, white, and poor black voters. They can never get power back.”

Economic reform

We discussed the mounting calls for economic reform, but Mbeki was sceptical that the party, or President Cyril Ramaphosa, could ever deliver it. “The consumption of the African middle class that dominates the state will never be cut by the same people who benefit from it. That’s why there’s only paralysis and stagnation,” said Mbeki.

In his view, this is the root cause of persistent unemployment, underinvestment, and South Africa’s chronic sense of drift. “It’s a state that spends, but doesn’t create,” he said, pointing to a decade of missed opportunities and deepening inequality.

According to Mbeki, South Africa is now: “at the end stage of nationalism,” with the ANC: “on its way out, fighting amongst themselves and fragmenting.” Even new splinter parties, like the uMkhonto weSizwe Party, are merely offshoots of the same patronage machine.

The real question, he told me, is not whether the ANC survives, but what kind of opposition steps up to fill the vacuum. “The Democratic Alliance (DA) is now the second major party,” he said: “but it must avoid the trap of being defined only by what it opposes. If it can grow its support among the majority and show it can govern for all, not just a minority, it could define South Africa’s future”.

Requirements

We talked about what that would require. For the DA or any credible alternative to succeed, Mbeki believes it must build trust among black South Africans, many of whom remain sceptical that the official opposition can break from its past or offer more than technocratic competence.

“You can’t just be against the ANC,” he said. “You have to offer a positive vision that addresses jobs, inequality, and the deep frustration ordinary South Africans feel.” He also warned that without new ideas, any opposition could end up simply reproducing the same patronage politics under a different banner.

Mbeki’s view of the country’s crossroads is unsparing, but not hopeless. He sees in the growing alienation from the ANC, across all communities, a potential for renewal if new leaders are willing to speak honestly about what hasn’t worked, and are prepared to risk bold reforms.

“South Africans have seen through empty slogans. They want leaders who will talk about real problems, jobs, growth, safety, and who have the courage to act,” Mbeki said.

With the ANC paralysed by its own factions and new parties still trading on its legacy, Mbeki’s message was simple: South Africans must look beyond the loyalties of the past. The country cannot afford another decade of drift. “The only way forward,” he told me: “is for South Africans to demand new leadership, greater honesty, and the courage to try what hasn’t yet been tried.”