Poll data from 2022 recently cited on the Makin Sense podcast showed that well before the 2024 election the African National Congress (ANC) had already been overtaken by the Democratic Alliance (DA) in terms of party brand. The data showed that while the country’s largest party still held power, it was drifting out of touch with the values and policy preferences of its own support base. Despite the warning signs, the ANC proved unable to keep up with this shift, setting the stage for the defeat that would follow in 2024.

In polling conducted by the Social Research Foundation (SRF) in 2022 respondents were asked which party had the best policies. The results showed that a very important thing had happened in South Africa. They found that 29.5% of all voters answered that the DA had the best policies for the country, compared to 28.6% who held that view of the ANC.

This slim lead for the opposition marked a watershed moment, as the ANC’s long-standing dominance as the party of ideas had given way to a new centre defined by the DA.

The DA’s advantage was even more pronounced on accountability. In July 2022, 34% of all voters said the DA was the party most likely to hold its own leaders accountable, while only 26% said the same of the ANC. The governing party’s repeated scandals and failure to self-correct had eroded public faith to a point where the DA had overtaken it in this key benchmark of public opinion.

Perhaps the most dramatic numbers came from testing voter opinion on the "anti-poor" label. The SRF poll found that 39% of all voters now saw the ANC as the party most likely to act against the interests of the poor, while only 21% said the same of the DA. For a movement founded on solidarity with the marginalised, this represented a fundamental repudiation by South African voters.

When it came to breaking promises, the voting public was again clear. Thirty percent of voters identified the ANC as the party most likely to break its promises, compared to 21% for the DA. The perception of the ANC as unreliable and insincere now cut across all voter groups, further eroding the moral authority it once claimed.

Taken together, those numbers, still two years out from South Africa’s 2024 election, showed a profound reshaping of the country’s political centre.

Yet even as these warning signs became undeniable, the ANC showed little ability to adjust to this new reality or correct its course. The party’s leadership often dismissed such data as biased or irrelevant, clinging to legacy of easy narratives instead of addressing public concerns over integrity and delivery.

Deepening internal factional battles and entrenched patronage networks made meaningful reform all but impossible. Rather than respond to the loss of trust with honest introspection or renewal, the ANC typically doubled down on rhetoric and blamed external factors for its failings. The result was a widening gap between what ordinary South Africans wanted and what the party was prepared to offer, accelerating its decline and deepening the uncertainty about its future role.

Those who wish to still save the ANC worry that little of that has changed. The party remains both detached from how it is perceived and reluctant to consider the reforms that the bulk of South Africa’s voters want, reforms that if introduced might quickly reverse South Africa’s poor investment, growth, and jobs numbers.