Business confidence in South Africa continued to stagnate in the third quarter, with the latest RMB/BER business confidence index reading coming in at 39 points. This is slightly below the 40-point level seen in Q2 and a far cry from the 80-point highs reached during the boom years of the mid-2000s.

This implies that over 60% of respondents are not happy with current business conditions.

This steady decline matters because over the years, whenever businesses have felt more confident about the future, they have spent more on new projects, factories, and equipment. Every upswing in confidence has meant more investment and every dip has meant less.

This year little has moved forward on important policies. The failure to secure a US-SA trade deal that would have lowered tariffs from 30% to 10% is just one example among others. When businesses are unsure if government can deliver clear rules or protect property rights they put their plans on hold. That means fewer factories, fewer jobs, slower progress and less chance for the country to grow.

Business confidence is not just another number. It is often the first thing to shift when the country is moving in the right direction or heading for trouble. Without a real recovery in confidence, South Africa’s investment levels will stay too low to deliver the broad growth and job creation that defined the first 14 years after 1994.

If business confidence remains stuck where it is now, South Africa will miss out on the investment needed to get growth up to 4% and will remain an economy that grows at sub-1% in 2025.