Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado’s unexpected win of the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize has raised concerns of insider trading on Polymarket, the crypto-based prediction platform. In the hours before the announcement, Machado’s odds jumped from three percent to more than 70% as one account placed large bets, just before the Norwegian Nobel Committee made its decision public.

The spike drew scrutiny from economists and traders alike. Harvard professor Jason Furman noted on social media that the trading pattern looked like insider activity. On Polymarket, users wager cryptocurrency on outcomes ranging from elections to sporting events, with prices reflecting collective expectations. Because such contracts are not classified as securities, insider-trading laws in the United States do not apply.

This month, Polymarket secured a $2 billion investment from the New York Stock Exchange’s parent company, Intercontinental Exchange, valuing the firm at about $9 billion.

The controversy highlights a growing regulatory gap. Prediction markets are expanding into mainstream finance faster than oversight can follow. The Nobel leak may prove a turning point, exposing how easily “information advantage” can shade into exploitation in the new world of crypto-finance.