Eskom’s Energy Availability Factor (EAF) hit a five-year record high in September boding well for South Africa’s long-term economic growth prospects.

The EAF number indicates what share of Eskom’s power plants are producing the electricity they should. It is calculated by subtracting from total potential production power plants undergoing planned maintenance as well as the unplanned breakdowns of power plants.

The EAF was at 71.4% in September after having bottomed out at near 55% in January this year. The EAF has a seasonal dynamic to it and tends to bottom out towards the end of the year and peak early in the South African spring.

The EAF for September was nonetheless the first time in five years that the number had exceeded 70% according to data from the advisory firm Frans Cronje Private Clients.

More good news for Eskom is that unplanned breakdowns number fell to a five-year record low of 17.6%. The previous record was 18.6% recorded in August of 2021.

Independent energy expert, Hugo Kruger, told The Common Sense that: “the data shows that Eskom adopted the correct approach in seeking to fix its coal fleet….this was an obvious approach…fix the broken coal fleet and you solve the energy crisis.”

Frans Cronje told The Common Sense that, “the data is a very positive directional indicator for the South African economy and that if more is done to refit the ailing coal fleet South Africa could produce sufficient electricity over the next decade to, from an energy perspective, to take the economic growth rate from the current level of near 1% to 2% and then 3% and perhaps even 4%.”