South Africa’s public finances have swung from stability to strain as rising government debt once again consumes a growing share of the budget. In 1994, government debt stood at 44% of GDP, but prudent management and faster economic growth saw the ratio halved to 27% by 2008. That shift, coupled with lower interest rates, cut debt-service costs from almost 20% of state expenditure in the mid-1990s to just 6% in 2008.

Since then, the position has deteriorated. By 2024 government debt had climbed back to about 70% of GDP. Debt-service costs have risen in step, consuming close to one-fifth of total spending, a level last seen three decades ago. The effect has been to crowd out resources for infrastructure, health and education, even as demand for these services has grown.

Economics editor at The Common Sense, Bheki Mahlobo, said last week that the pressure the government had put itself under could easily have been avoided, and might easily still be reduced, by raising the rate of economic growth from current levels of under 1% of GDP to reach emerging market norms of near 4%. According to Mahlobo the energy and policy reforms necessary to achieve this are straightforward and well understood and only require political action to realise.