Nedbank forecasts that GDP will rise by 1% in 2025 and then lift to average 1.5% over the subsequent three years. In a note released earlier this week, the bank highlights that while the global environment remains uncertain and risks persist from the expiry of AGOA and elevated US tariffs, the opportunity for stronger domestic growth is real if reforms are prioritised. “Accelerating structural reforms are the key to enhancing the international competitiveness of industries,” the bank said.

The bank’s outlook suggests that subdued inflation and interest rates, both at home and abroad, may modestly boost demand for South African goods and services. Nedbank expects a moderate recovery, but stresses that progress on energy and logistics reforms will be decisive for unlocking the country’s full growth potential. “In conclusion, we expect a moderate recovery over the next three years, with GDP growth averaging around 1.5%. Domestically and globally, subdued inflation and interest rates will likely boost demand. However, much depends on the need for faster progress with reforms in the energy and logistics space and the effect on global demand from Trump 2.0” the bank concluded.

The outlook is a reminder that, even in a challenging global context, South Africa has agency to shift its economic trajectory. Momentum on reform can boost international competitiveness, attract new investment, and position South African manufacturers to benefit from global demand.