Earlier this week Stats SA reported that: “Total employment decreased by 229 000 or 2.1% year-on-year between June 2024 and June 2025.”

When Messrs Mandela and Mbeki ran South Africa, the economy created over 500 000 net new jobs per year, as a consequence of which the total number of people with jobs nearly doubled between 1994 and 2008.

Mr Zuma’s era saw that number cut in half, but Mr Ramaphosa’s time in office has seen the number struggle to reach even 100 000. Now the government’s statistical agency reports significant losses over the past year.

Whereas almost 8 million jobs were added to the labour market between 1994 and 2008, since then the number is closer to 2 million.

The losses of the past year occurred off an already extraordinarily high rate of unemployment. At over 30%, South Africa’s jobless rate is roughly six times the global average. In most of the world, unemployment is not a major political issue because it essentially does not exist.

The fix

South Africa’s unemployment rate is so high, and so few jobs have been created since 2008, because the rate of economic growth is so low. Growth is so low because the fixed investment rate is 15% and not the 25% to 30% that it should be.

That rate is so low because the policies of the government tax capital investment on arrival and then threaten what is committed with expropriation, whilst at the same time being loath to make appointments on merit alone. It’s a truly toxic cocktail.

The fix, however, is easy.

Concession all ports and rail operations to private providers. Refit the defunct coal fleet. Stop taxing capital on arrival. Make explicit that market value will apply in the event that the state expropriates the business, property, or capital of an investor. Restore merit to its place in hiring and procurement decisions. Strike a large-scale trade and investment deal with the United States and do the same with China.

Economic growth

With just those steps the economic growth rate will triple from its current levels, maybe even threatening levels approaching 4%. For every point of growth, the economy will create 100 000 net new jobs per year. Get growth to 5% and South Africa will be back at the old Mandela and Mbeki averages.

But all the way from 2008 to today there were state-led development experts who opposed private entry into parastatals, green activists who opposed coal-refitment, social justice activists who promoted taxing capital and expropriation, race-grifters who opposed merit as the basis of hiring in the economy, and ideologues who either promoted fracturing ties with the West or opposed building stronger ties with China.

The most incredible thing to think is that had they all been overruled, and an economic growth average of 5% maintained after 2008, South Africa’s unemployment rate today would be around 10% and not 30%, and the number of people in jobs would be around 10 million greater than it is. Imagine what that would have meant to the country and what an amazing place it would have been.