South Africa faces a pivotal decision point as officials negotiate agricultural quotas and port logistics. The nation now has the chance to propose a trade and investment partnership with the United States that rivals the scale of its democratic transition. Instead of focusing narrowly on agricultural access, South Africa could pursue a deal that catalyses the restoration of energy, heavy industry, and infrastructure—ensuring its future as a key player in a renewed transatlantic economic alliance.

The foundation of this partnership is South Africa's electricity grid and its many idle coal-fired power stations. Out of 36 800 MW of installed coal capacity, much remains underused in outdated plants. Past policy drift, flawed transition funding, and early decommissioning have led to rolling blackouts and a weakened steel sector. With US capital and advanced technology, up to 15 000 MW could be refitted, using cutting-edge emissions controls and turbines. This would steady the grid, lower costs for South African firms, and spark investment and job growth.

The steel sector illustrates why this matters for industry. South Africa has rich reserves of iron ore, chrome, and coal—a base that once fuelled its manufacturing growth. Two decades ago, steel and alloys anchored the economy, supporting jobs and the supply chain from mining to construction. Fixed investment peaked at 21.6% of GDP in 2008 before falling to 14.9% in 2023 amid energy shortages and policy uncertainty. The loss of reliable power hollowed out industry and undercut South Africa’s ability to build critical infrastructure.

Despite setbacks, South Africa’s resources and market demand remain strong. Refitting the coal fleet with US help would revive steelmaking, leading to growth in mining, engineering, and machinery manufacturing. This revitalisation is crucial for repairing logistics networks—from roads and rail to ports and water systems. When steel is abundant and affordable, infrastructure projects become viable and both public and private sectors can drive recovery. This is the lever for restoring South Africa's industrial standing.

The benefits would extend beyond South Africa. A robust trade and investment pact would let American and South African firms jointly develop projects across Africa. Urbanisation and infrastructure needs are surging, with funding gaps in the trillions. By merging US investment and technology with South African skills and materials, this partnership could present African governments with a credible, rules-based alternative to China’s development approach. Both sides would gain: American companies access new markets, while South Africa secures jobs, export growth, and influence.

The timing is urgent for a new Atlantic partnership. The US, UK, South Africa, and Argentina all have mining, energy, and agricultural strengths, as well as control of major trade routes. As shipping avoids the Suez Canal, Cape route traffic has soared—yet South African ports often miss out due to inefficiency. A transatlantic agreement could position South Africa’s ports and industries as hubs for global shipping, boosting trade and industrial activity.

South Africa must move past rhetoric about ‘just transitions’ and failed deindustrialisation-for-aid models. Since 2008, its GDP growth has diverged from global trends, business confidence has plunged from 82 to the low 30s, and unemployment is at historic highs. Only a bold deal can reverse these trends—unlocking cheap power, rebuilding industry, and unleashing local skills and enterprise.

For Washington, the case is equally compelling. South Africa is pivotal in a multipolar world, with infrastructure, minerals, a skilled workforce, and democratic credentials. As the US competes with China, Russia, and Iran in Africa, a real economic partnership with South Africa would anchor mutual interests in open markets, stable investment, and pluralism.

The time has come for South Africa and the US to transcend narrow deals and policy inertia. By launching a 15 000 MW coal refit, reviving steel, and linking transatlantic partners from the Cape to the North Atlantic and Southern Cone, they can do more than resolve the electricity crisis. They can secure South Africa’s place in global industry and strengthen the West’s partnership with Africa.

South Africa must aim high at the negotiating table. Now is the time to claim its role in driving the next era of transatlantic growth and African industrial leadership.

Seen through this lens, an ambitious deal between South Africa and the United States is not only possible but essential. Such a partnership offers the chance to reset industrial fortunes and reshape global alliances for a new era.