A new briefing note from the Hudson Institute, a Washington think tank, argues that Beijing and Tehran “might be on the brink of a new era of defence ties”, a shift the Institute maintains would undermine regional security and US interests.

Author Can Kasapoğlu writes that, with Moscow faltering, China could step into the vacuum as Iran’s principal arms supplier, rapidly expanding its historically modest share of Middle East arms sales.

The brief notes that, with Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) stockpiles depleted by recent fighting, Tehran would be eager to re-equip with Chinese weapons and technology, and that any Chinese hardware supplied to Iran would almost certainly proliferate to proxies such as the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon, threatening Gulf shipping lanes and Israel’s airspace.

Kasapoğlu adds that looming “snapback” sanctions on Iran over its nuclear programme could temper Beijing’s enthusiasm, but China’s drive to widen its global arms footprint, and the leverage gained by supplying a key energy partner, gives Tehran an opening to boost ties and rearm.

Washington and its allies, the brief concludes, should intensify monitoring of Sino-Iranian transactions, warning that unchecked cooperation could reverse the recent setbacks to Iran’s military ambitions.

The United States (US) is the principal supplier of arms to Israel and maintains an extensive military footprint in the Middle East.