A new analysis by the Washington-based Hudson Institute warns that China’s expanding nuclear arsenal is only one part of a far broader strategy to undermine Western confidence through psychological warfare. According to authors John Lee and Lavina Lee, Beijing sees cognitive operations, targeting the mind and morale of adversaries, as central to its ambitions in the Indo-Pacific.

The report argues that China’s leaders are investing in narrative control, spreading the message that their dominance is inevitable and that US security guarantees, especially to partners like Taiwan and Australia, are unreliable. Recent missile drills following the 2022 Pelosi visit to Taiwan, as well as Beijing’s deliberate mixing of conventional and nuclear capabilities, are designed to sow doubt, confusion and fear, forcing rivals to second-guess their options before any conflict even begins.

The authors point out that Washington’s reluctance to respond decisively, including delaying key missile tests, has fed perceptions of US hesitancy and weakened faith in America’s commitment to defend its allies. As China’s arsenal grows, so too does its ability to pressure opponents without firing a shot. The goal, they say, is to convince democratic societies that resistance is futile, allowing China to “win without fighting”, a strategy rooted in ancient doctrine but aimed squarely at the modern psyche.

The report concludes that unless Western leaders adapt to the realities of psychological conflict, they risk ceding ground not just in Asia but in the minds of their own citizens.