Russia and Belarus are preparing for Zapad 2025, a large military exercise running from 12 to 16 September. Officials in Minsk, the capital of Belarus, say the drills will include practice runs for nuclear weapons use and tests with the Oreshnik missile, a long-range cruise missile system that Russia has already deployed in the war against Ukraine, capable of striking targets hundreds of kilometers away with high precision.

Belarus’s inclusion in the exercise matters because it signals Russia’s intent to showcase advanced strike options directly along NATO’s eastern border.

Zapad, which means “West” in Russian, has been held every four years since the end of the Cold War. Earlier versions of the exercise focused mainly on conventional ground manoeuvres in Belarus and western Russia. Zapad 2025 is more provocative because it introduces nuclear-use scenarios and advanced missile systems, underlining Moscow’s willingness to display escalation options as tensions with NATO grow.

European governments see Zapad not as routine training but as a pointed message, and they are responding with their own shows of strength. Germany is taking the lead at sea with Northern Coasts 2025, part of a wider training programme known as Quadriga. More than 8000 troops from 14 countries, alongside 40 warships, 30 aircraft, and almost 2000 vehicles, are involved. Their task is to practice moving reinforcements quickly into Lithuania by sea, land, and air. German officials insist the purpose is deterrence rather than provocation but acknowledge that parts of the exercise will run at the same time as Zapad.

On land, Lithuania has launched its own training cycle called Thunder Strike. Involving some 17000 troops, it will be held in September and October and includes several separate drills under one banner. Lithuania has timed these directly against Zapad, noting intelligence that Russia and Belarus could involve up to 30000 troops. At the same time, Lithuania’s cyber defence teams have gone on heightened alert to guard against possible digital attacks.

Some Belarusian officials have hinted that Zapad might be smaller than planned, but Lithuanian commanders have dismissed this as potentially misleading. Western analysts point out that Russia has often under-reported troop numbers in the past to avoid international scrutiny.

Across the region, the NATO response is layered: naval patrols in the Baltic, large land maneuvers in Lithuania, cyber defences on standby, and an additional multinational exercise in Poland, and looks to show NATO unity and strength.