Karol Nawrocki was sworn in as Poland’s new president earlier this month after a razor-thin electoral victory that is set to reshape the country’s political balance. The Supreme Court confirmed his win on 1 July, rejecting government claims of voting irregularities, and his inauguration took place on 6 August.

Nawrocki, an independent conservative backed by the opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party, secured roughly 50.9% of the vote against incumbent Warsaw mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, who took 49.1%. While recounts shifted around 18 000 votes in Trzaskowski’s favour, the margin remained too wide to overturn. The court found that alleged irregularities would not have affected the final outcome.

A historian and former head of the Institute of National Remembrance, Nawrocki campaigned on a platform that blended Catholic values, a tough anti-Kremlin stance, and a commitment to NATO. He is a vocal supporter of Poland’s alliance with the United States and favours a more sceptical engagement with the European Union, arguing for a union of sovereign states rather than a centralised superstate.

His victory represents a significant blow to Prime Minister Donald Tusk, whose governing coalition had hoped to retain the presidency to push forward judicial reforms and social policy changes. With Nawrocki in office, Tusk faces the prospect of presidential vetoes on key legislation and complications in making ambassadorial appointments.

Despite winning a confidence vote on 11 June, Tusk’s approval ratings have slid in recent months, and recent polls cited in the election analysis suggest his party now trails PiS. He reshuffled his cabinet on last month, merging ministries and replacing several ministers, but the move appears to have done little to reverse political headwinds.

Nawrocki’s campaign gained momentum through intensive ground operations and high-profile endorsements. In May, he met US president, Donald Trump, in the Oval Office and received an endorsement from Homeland Security secretary, Kristi Noem, later that month. Trzaskowski, meanwhile, drew support from prominent U.S. Democrats including Barack Obama and John Kerry, though analysts suggest these endorsements resonated mostly with liberal urban voters.

The new president’s term is expected to bring a shift toward a more US-aligned foreign policy and a cautious stance toward Brussels. At home, his election signals continued political polarisation, with Poland’s deeply divided electorate showing no sign of convergence on key social and constitutional questions.