Reform UK would be within touching distance of power if an election were held tomorrow, according to a major new YouGov poll that signals a dramatic redrawing of the political map in the United Kingdom (UK).

The polling, based on a sample of 13 000 voters, projects that Nigel Farage’s party would capture 311 seats, just 15 short of an outright majority in the House of Commons. Labour, which swept to office only last year, would be slashed to 144 seats, down from 411, while the Conservatives would be reduced to 45, down from 121. The Liberal Democrats are also forecast to make gains, although these are more modest, climbing to 78 MPs from its current 72.

YouGov’s estimates put national vote shares for Reform at 27%, Labour at 21%, the Conservatives at 17%, the Liberal Democrats at 15%, and the Greens at 11%. The polls show Reform emerging as the largest party in 91% of simulations, with an outright majority in 8% of modelled outcomes.

The churn would claim the scalps of senior Labour figures including Yvette Cooper, Wes Streeting, Ed Miliband, John Healey, Pat McFadden, Lisa Nandy, and Angela Rayner. On the Conservative side, former cabinet members Mel Stride, James Cleverly, and Suella Braverman are all projected to lose their seats, while the Liberal Democrats are on course to topple Jeremy Hunt.

With many constituencies now decided on slender pluralities, the average winning vote share falls to 34%, compared with 40% in 2024 (UK elections run on a first-past-the-post system where the largest party in a constituency wins the seat regardless of whether it has won an outright majority or not). Reform is projected to take 82 seats by under five percentage points, underlining the volatility of the new landscape.