A new report from the Henry Jackson Society, a prominent foreign policy think tank in London, has warned that genuine peace in the Middle East is unlikely as long as Iran’s clerical regime remains in power.

According to the think tank, the Islamic Republic’s grip is weakening under the pressure of mass protests, a shrinking economy, and widespread corruption. The report points to accelerating inflation and growing public discontent as clear signs that the regime has lost much of its legitimacy at home.

The study maintains that Western strategies focused solely on sanctions or incremental engagement have failed to curb Tehran’s nuclear ambitions or halt its destabilising activities across the region. It argues that Iran’s continued support for proxy groups in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen drives conflict and heightens risks for global security. “So long as the Islamic Republic persists, neither the Iranian people nor the region will know peace,” the authors state.

Instead of pursuing narrow containment policies, the report urges Western governments to actively support Iranian civil society and opposition networks, while also preparing for a possible sudden collapse of the regime. The authors conclude that only a democratic Iran can end the cycle of violence and offer prospects for regional stability and economic growth. They call for robust contingency planning and international coordination to assist Iran’s future transition, warning that the costs of inaction will be borne far beyond its borders.