The White House has released its annual narcotics determination, a sweeping document that underscores the global dimensions of the drug trade while placing fresh pressure on governments seen as falling short. Sent to Congress on 15 September under the Foreign Relations Authorization Act, the Presidential Determination identifies 24 states as either major drug transit points or significant producers of illicit narcotics.

The list spans multiple regions and includes Afghanistan, the Bahamas, Belize, Bolivia, Burma, the People’s Republic of China, Colombia, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, India, Jamaica, Laos, Mexico, Nicaragua, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, and Venezuela. The administration stressed that inclusion does not necessarily signal poor cooperation but reflects structural conditions, geography, commerce, and economics, that enable narcotics trafficking and production.

Five countries, however, were designated as having “failed demonstrably” over the past year to uphold their international drug control obligations: Afghanistan, Bolivia, Burma, Colombia, and Venezuela. In each case, President Donald Trump submitted written justifications to Congress. Even so, he determined that continued United States assistance to four of those countries, Bolivia, Burma, Colombia, and Venezuela, remains “vital to the national interests of the United States.”

The statement placed America’s internal crisis front and centre. Trafficking of fentanyl and other synthetic drugs is described as a national emergency, with overdoses remaining the leading cause of death for Americans aged 18 to 44. In 2024, the United States recorded an average of more than 200 deaths each day linked to illicit drugs, and surveys suggest more than 40% of Americans know someone who has died from an opioid overdose.

Trump emphasised that his administration has deployed law enforcement and military resources to secure the border, claiming that overdose deaths have begun to decline for the first time in more than a decade. He also pressed Canada and Mexico to intensify their roles. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has appointed a fentanyl czar and advanced new inspection powers, though Washington says more is needed. Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum has deployed 10 000 National Guard troops to the border, overseen major fentanyl seizures, and handed 29 cartel figures to US custody.

Relations with Beijing also feature prominently. The determination calls the People’s Republic of China (PRC) the world’s largest source of precursor chemicals fuelling illicit fentanyl production. It cites subsidies and lax enforcement as enabling factors and outlines retaliatory measures including an additional 20% tariff and the elimination of duty-free treatment for low-value Chinese imports.

Individual assessments were pointed. Colombia was faulted for record levels of coca cultivation and cocaine production under President Gustavo Petro, with Trump asserting that failures lay with political leadership, not security services. Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro was described as running a regime complicit in trafficking. Afghanistan’s Taliban was accused of sustaining stockpiles and expanding methamphetamine production despite its proclaimed ban. Bolivia was acknowledged for progress in seizures and cooperation but urged to close persistent gaps.

The determination makes clear that the Trump administration views narcotics not merely as a law enforcement issue but as a national security threat with global reach. With designations now carrying trade, diplomatic, and financial consequences, Washington is signalling that governments failing to curb the flows of drugs or precursor chemicals will be called out publicly and pressured with sanctions, tariffs, and restrictions.