The Henry Jackson Society, a London think tank, has released a policy brief arguing that a sudden collapse of Iran’s Islamic Republic could spark a destabilising scramble for territory and influence by neighbouring states, and has urged Western governments to take precautionary measures.

Authored by Middle East analyst Barak M. Seener and published last week, the brief contends that the regime in Tehran is increasingly brittle and that “no transition plan is in place” to manage the aftermath should it collapse.

Seener predicts that Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Pakistan, and various Kurdish factions would swiftly court secessionist militias or occupy strategic borderlands. “Regional actors could take advantage of the vacuum of governance and co-opt armed secessionist groups,” he writes, citing Russia’s 2014 seizure of Crimea and Morocco’s takeover of Western Sahara after Spain’s withdrawal, as precedents.

To avoid a repeat of Iraq’s post-2003 chaos, the brief urges Washington and European allies to begin quiet coordination with Tehran’s neighbours. “Western states must already now begin coordinating with neighbouring states to stabilise bordering regions in the event of regime collapse,” it states, arguing that Riyadh, Ankara, and Islamabad ultimately share an interest in preventing “a complete vacuum of governance with chaos spilling over”.

The brief also calls for capacity-building programmes for Iranian opposition networks, contingency funds for border security, and a multilateral task force to draft an interim constitutional framework. Without such measures, Seener concludes, any downfall of the clerical regime risks triggering “fracture, foreign intervention and protracted conflict” across the Middle East.