In a September forecast, Nedbank predicts that South Africa’s economic growth rate will lift modestly into 2028, while the currency will hold at near current levels.

According to the forecast, Nedbank expects South Africa’s economy to grow by 1% in 2025, lifting to 1.4% in 2026, and 1.6% in 2027.

The bank sees the rand averaging 17.95 to the US dollar this year, strengthening modestly to 17.75 in 2026, and then weakening to 18.18 in 2027.

According to The Common Sense’s Economics and Policy Editor, Bheki Mahlobo, the Nedbank forecasts are broadly in line with most medium-term projections for South Africa’s economy, including those of the state.

The trouble with this, said Mahlobo: “is that South Africa’s economy has created around 100 000 net new jobs per annum over the past 30 years for every point of GDP growth recorded, but with growth forecast at under 2% South Africa cannot nearly reach the levels of job creation necessary to bring down the rate of unemployment by much or at all.”

Between 1994 and 2008, South Africa’s economy created in the region of 500 000 net new jobs per year. That number was halved during the era of President Jacob Zuma and then halved again during the era of President Cyril Ramaphosa.