The contest to succeed Cyril Ramaphosa has thrown into stark relief the modern African National Congress's (ANC) failure to cultivate a new generation of credible leaders. With Fikile Mbalula and Paul Mashatile seen as the frontrunners for the party presidency in 2027, the ANC is heading into a bruising succession struggle at precisely the moment it needs unity and a restoration of public trust.

Marius Roodt, the Editor-in-Chief at The Common Sense, says that “the ANC once drew its strength from deep benches of talent, but the cadre deployment era, patronage politics, and years of factional infighting have left the party unable to put forward figures who can command broad respect across society”.

This vacuum is now glaring: both Mbalula and Mashatile, products of years of internal jockeying, face scepticism from business, civil society, and much of the party’s own base. Polling from the Social Research Foundation (SRF) shows that faith in the ANC’s ability to renew itself is very low, with a majority of voters saying there are no current leaders who inspire confidence or embody reform.

Sources in the ANC have told The Common Sense that when Ramaphosa steps down, the coming leadership contest is unlikely to resolve these doubts. Instead, it risks magnifying the perception that the ANC has lost its sense of mission and moral authority. The public recall of recent leadership transitions, from the Polokwane rupture to the disastrous Zuma years, underscores the dangers of a party absorbed by internal squabbles rather than national renewal.

A divisive contest between Mbalula and Mashatile would almost certainly deepen perceptions of crisis. Every public spat, every leak and power struggle, is ammunition for rivals eager to position themselves as agents of reform and stability. Unless the ANC can produce a credible leader with a compelling vision for the future, the party faces the risk of an irrevocable loss of trust.