In an extremely thorough review of electoral and turnout trends published on his website, pollster Gareth van Onselen observed that the ANC in Johannesburg has now shed more support than it retains.

According to van Onselen, “The ANC’s decline in Johannesburg has been catastrophic. From the dizzying heights of 68.6% in 2004, it has systematically lost support, falling below 50% for the first time in 2016, and then, all the way down to 31.9% in 2024. A decline of 36.7 percentage points. Put another way: The ANC has lost more support in Johannesburg than it currently has.”

Given the party’s 33.4% Johannesburg showing in the previous local government election, van Onselen suggested that it might be “headed for somewhere in the 20% range” come the 2026 or early 2027 local government polls.

Despite the ANC’s sharp decline in support, van Onselen sounded a cautionary note on the DA’s prospects in the city, writing that the party had not sustained the momentum of its very strong 2016 electoral showing. Had that momentum been maintained, the DA might already have beaten the ANC in Johannesburg in 2021.

The ANC and DA support lines in the city were, however, he speculated, “set to meet some time soon.”