The prospect of Cyril Ramaphosa stepping down as African National Congress (ANC) leader raises the spectre of a significant decline in the party’s support. After a decade marked by state capture scandals and policy drift, Ramaphosa’s 2017 election as party president briefly revived confidence in the ANC, as public optimism rallied around the promise of reform and clean governance. Yet, even with Ramaphosa at the helm, ANC support slid from 57.5% in 2019 to 40.2% in 2024, the sharpest drop since 1994.

The Common Sense expects that Mr Ramaphosa will resign as ANC leader at the end of 2027. Warwick Grey, Senior Editor at The Common Sense said that "if Ramaphosa resigns, polling and voter sentiment data suggest the party would likely lose a significant portion of its credibility with swing voters and the aspirant-urban middle class".

According to Social Research Foundation (SRF) polling, Ramaphosa is seen by a large share of ANC supporters as a last anchor of reform and stability. The same surveys indicate that internal rivals lack the broad public appeal or the trust of the business community needed to steady the party’s image. Without Ramaphosa, the ANC would likely face not just a further erosion in support but also a crisis of leadership, opening the door for rivals to capitalise on ANC weaknesses.