Cyril Ramaphosa is widely expected to step down as African National Congress (ANC) leader at the end of 2027, setting the stage for a high-stakes succession battle that could shape the future of South Africa’s governing party. While Ramaphosa has not officially announced his exit, insiders and long-term party observers point to persistent internal divisions and an ageing leadership as factors likely to bring about the change.

The ANC remains around split along lines of ideology and patronage with little sign of an emerging unity candidate. The absence of meaningful reformist momentum has compounded this uncertainty, with key players positioning themselves quietly in anticipation of a post-Ramaphosa era.

The party’s previous leadership contest was decided by fewer than 200 votes out of several thousand delegates, underscoring the unpredictable nature of internal dynamics. Senior party figures such as Paul Mashatile, Ronald Lamola, and others are often mentioned in speculation, but with no consensus or campaign yet dominating the conversation.

If the ANC fails to manage a smooth and credible transition, this may deepen its current malaise, risking further electoral losses and growth for the opposition. Recent polls have had the ANC polling in only the low 30s and more uncertainty around its leadership could see its support levels slide even further.