The peaceful transfer of power following South Africa’s 2024 election stands as a rare exception among post-colonial emerging markets, many of which have descended into institutional crises or violence when faced with potential defeat at the polls. In numerous countries, ruling parties experiencing or fearing electoral loss have resorted to using state institutions to entrench their rule, undermining courts, shutting down media, banning opposition leaders, or inflating currencies to hold on to power. South Africa has avoided that fate.

After the ANC lost its majority, falling to 40.2% in 2024 from 57.5% in 2019, it accepted the result and entered coalition negotiations that led to the formation of a Government of National Unity. No state institution was abused to keep the ruling party in office. Security forces remained neutral, courts operated independently, and the legal and electoral processes were upheld.

Frans Cronje, speaking to investors in Johannesburg last week, summed it up: “Countries transfer power either peacefully or violently, there is no middle ground. The South African transition may at times have been chaotic, and there are frustrations that the new government has not moved much on reforms, but the alternative is shooting in the streets.”

Where other post-colonial systems have seen ruling parties undermine democracy when threatened with electoral defeat, South Africa’s 2024 transition demonstrated institutional restraint and constitutional maturity. This was not the inevitable result and things might have turned out very differently.

The country’s political system passed a very important stress test of its legitimacy and stability last year that is uncommon among its peers.
South Africa’s peaceful power handover is not a guarantee of short-term reform or growth, but it is a powerful asset.

If future leaders can build on this foundation with capable governance and real economic reform, the democratic habits affirmed in 2024 may yet prove decisive in steering the country towards recovery.