Three by-elections being held today will show whether the ANC will continue its slide in electoral support and help give some indication of which way the electoral wind is blowing ahead of the next local government elections (LGE).

The first by-election is being held Emalahleni (Cacadu) in the Eastern Cape. In the November 2021 LGE the ANC commanded an overwhelming 85% share of both the ward and proportional-representation ballots. The EFF was second, but lagged far behind on just under 8%, while the DA barely registered, taking less than 3% of the vote. Turnout was modest at 45.2%, underscoring persistent challenges in mobilising voters in rural areas.

The only challenger to the ANC today is the PAC, meaning the party is likely to secure the ward without too much effort.

There was a similar pattern in Fetakgomo Tubatse (Burgersfort) in Limpopo, where the ANC won roughly three-quarters of the vote in 2021, and the EFF secured about 19%. Here too, the DA failed to make any inroads, and turnout remained under 50%. These figures set a high bar for any opposition advances in today’s by-elections.

The South African Communist Party is fielding a candidate in this by-election and observers will be watching to see how the party will do, after its recent announcement that it will be competing in the next local government poll.

In contrast, the by-election in Siyancuma (Douglas) in the Northern Cape stands out for its electoral competitiveness. In the last election, an independent candidate, Wim van Bergen, won on the ward ballot with 39.3%, closely followed by the DA at 34.2%. The ANC trailed with just 15.8%. On the PR ballot, without Van Bergen, the DA managed to 63.6%, far outpacing the ANC and VF Plus. Turnout here was a robust 63.6%, reflecting heightened voter engagement in this battleground ward.

Van Bergen passed away recently and had also previously served as the municipality’s mayor. DA leader, John Steenhuisen, had also recently visited the municipality, drumming up support for his party’s candidate.