Appearing on the Makin Sense podcast last week Frans Cronje set out the political math behind the contest between the African National Congress (ANC) and Democratic Alliance (DA) in Johannesburg.

According to Cronje a DA win in the city is possible under one particular set of circumstances: "Where the DA in the city gets its 2016 local government election result and the ANC gets its 2021 result."

In 2016 the DA won in the region of 500 000 votes in the city. In 2021 the ANC won in the region of 300 000.

According to Cronje the DA will need to win something near to its 2016 number again while the ANC must split its 300 000 number from 2021 with the Umkhonto weSizwe Party. Then even if the Economic Freedom Fighters wins near 100 000 votes and other ANC-aligned parties near 50 000 the DA would win the city.

Cronje also said that there were currently no feasible coalition options for the DA in the city.

See Cronje’s short explanation here.