The future outlook among ANC voters is sharply divided, revealing a party base that is increasingly uncertain about whether the ruling party can deliver material improvements to their lives. In a national poll conducted earlier this year by the Social Research Foundation (SRF), just 41% of ANC supporters said they believed their lives would improve over the next decade, while 35% disagreed and the remainder were undecided.

Frans Cronje, editor of The Common Sense commented that: “the number should be a concern for the ANC in that their remaining supporters were not convinced that their party could improve their lives.” He added, “ANC voters have always voted on their material circumstances more than on questions such as party loyalty or the like. For a time after 1994 the ANC did very well to raise living standards but that has changed over the past decade and ANC support levels have slipped accordingly.”

These results come as the ANC faces mounting challenges in regaining lost ground among the electorate, with support levels tracking closely alongside trends in household wellbeing, employment, and service delivery over the past twenty years.

If the party cannot regain the confidence of its base, the cost of inaction may be further declines in support and a deepening sense of uncertainty across South African society. Without credible reform and growth, both the ANC and the country risk sliding into prolonged stagnation.