A 2025 poll by the Social Research Foundation (SRF) has revealed that core supporters of the African National Congress (ANC) remain broadly supportive of Cyril Ramaphosa’s performance, but a sharp divergence exists between party loyalists and general South African voters. The survey found that 66% of ANC supporters agreed that conditions in South Africa had improved since Ramaphosa became party leader, while 30% disagreed. Yet outside the ANC’s base, the mood was far more negative, with only 33% of all voters believing things had improved and 55% stating the country had become worse under his leadership.

Commenting on these findings, Frans Cronje told The Common Sense: “The data suggests what you’d expect – that the ANC’s remaining supporters are generally positive about their leader, but that the ANC will have a hard time in winning back support it has lost, particularly when Mr Ramaphosa exits as ANC leader, which we expect to happen towards the end of 2027.”

This gap between party and public sentiment points to a fundamental challenge for the ANC as it enters a new political era. While party loyalists remain in Ramaphosa’s corner, broader national opinion continues to drift away, underlining the scale of the political realignment now underway in South Africa.

Failure to close this divide may cost the ANC further support when a leadership transition occurs, with little sign that disaffected voters are ready to return to the fold.