The electorate is almost evenly split on a Democratic Alliance (DA)-led no-confidence motion in President Ramaphosa, reflecting uncertainty over stability versus fresh leadership.

A Social Research Foundation (SRF) poll asked respondents: “Should the DA table a motion of no confidence in President Ramaphosa?”

Fifty-three percent say yes, while 45% say no. The split mirrors divisions over whether the ANC leader can still steer reforms or has become an obstacle. Pro-motion voters point to stalled power-station refurbishments and ballooning public debt. Those against warn that ejecting Ramaphosa without a successor acceptable to coalition partners could fracture the Government of National Unity (GNU) and trigger early elections. The knife-edge gap means the president’s fate may hinge on events rather than polls.

Another major blackout or corruption revelation could swing undecided citizens and lawmakers toward pushing him out. Conversely, improvements in rail performance or credible arrests could buy him time. For the DA the data offer both opportunity and risk. A failed motion may strengthen Ramaphosa by portraying him as a victim of partisan maneuvers. A successful one would force the GNU into uncharted territory. Either way, voters expect reasons grounded in performance, not theatre.