26 Things to Watch in 2026

If you think last year was a rollercoaster, 2026 is going to be even more volatile. Whatever happens, it’s fair to say that it will be a year of flux. Predictions are risky, but if you know what to look out for, you are less likely to be taken by surprise. Here are 26 things to watch in South Africa – and the world – in 2026.

1. Strains in the GNU

Like many people, I have been surprised by the durability of the Government of National Unity (GNU). While both major parties, the African National Congress (ANC) and the Democratic Alliance (DA), have been sufficiently incentivised to stay in the GNU, we will surely see many more flare-ups, sackings, scandals, and policy contradictions.

2. Local government elections

The date of the municipal elections has yet to be announced, but 2026 will be characterised by fervent campaigning at the local level. Will GNU frenemies turn on one another? The ANC is weakened, but so too are its rivals, the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP), who have much to prove after losing momentum in 2025.

3. Helen takes on Joburg

All eyes will be on Helen Zille’s campaign to take the mayoral chain in Johannesburg. She remains the DA’s strongest electoral asset, but will she be able to summon enough votes to unseat the ANC-EFF coalition? Frans Cronje is correct: her candidacy represents a major chess move for the DA, which has tended to neglect Gauteng.

4. A lame duck presidency?

While he remains more popular than his party – and a savvy political survivor – President Cyril Ramaphosa may struggle to assert his authority within an increasingly divided and fractious ANC. The GNU might hold, but without a strong vision from the top it will lack direction and urgency.

5. The ANC succession race kicks off

Rivals within the ANC are quietly positioning themselves for next year’s leadership contest. Deputy President Paul Mashatile seems to be in the strongest position, but other contenders may emerge such as Fikile Mbalula, Panyaza Lesufi, or Ronald Lamola.

6. The DA elective conference

In April, the DA will hold its Federal Congress, electing key office bearers. Federal Leader John Steenhuisen will use the conference as a referendum on the DA’s participation in the GNU. If re-elected, he will surely advocate for the DA to stay in. Strong challengers are unlikely.

7. Fights over race law

The GNU was supposed to bring South Africans together, but 2025 saw a ratcheting up of race-based laws. The Employment Equity Amendment Act was the most odious of these, imposing strict race and gender quotas on the workforce. Will big business be brave enough to conscientiously object?

8. More pressure on black economic empowerment (BEE)?

Will pressure from civil society and the DA in 2025 translate into substantive changes to BEE in 2026? Will Donald Trump insist on waiving BEE as a precondition for United States (US) foreign direct investment? Will European firms follow suit? How will beneficiaries of BEE respond when their interests are threatened?

9. Heightened expropriation risk?

The gravest threat to the economy and civil liberties remains the Expropriation Act, signed into law last January. How will the courts adjudicate on legal challenges against the Act as well as existing cases of expropriation without compensation (EWC)? Will the DA Minister of Public Works change his tune on the risks?

10. Budget continuity?

Markets and ordinary South Africans cheered last November when the Minister of Finance, Enoch Godongwana, projected a primary budget surplus and a stabilisation of government debt in his Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement. Watch closely for the February budget. Taxpayers need some relief and would prefer to not see a VAT increase put back on the agenda.

11. Will South Africa’s economy grow?

A balanced budget is great, but without elevated levels of economic growth, South Africa is unlikely to reduce unemployment or see widespread improvement in living conditions. If GDP growth pushes above 2% then a recovery is on the cards, but this can only happen with meaningful regulatory reform, particularly in the mining, energy, and logistics sectors.

12. What happens next in Venezuela?

What follows the abduction of Nicolás Maduro by US special forces? Will the entire socialist authoritarian regime fall, or will Maduro be replaced by yet another Chavista? Donald Trump has successfully revived the Monroe Doctrine in the Western Hemisphere, but can the US keep China out of Latin America?

13. Will Milei double down?

Javier Milei has tamed inflation, eliminated the budget deficit and repealed thousands of government regulations since becoming President of Argentina in December 2023. His party’s strong showing in legislative elections last October gives Milei a fresh mandate to push ahead with liberalising reforms.

14. Will the regime in Iran collapse?

Last June, Iran’s nuclear weapons capabilities and military leadership were severely weakened in the 12-Day War with Israel (with the support of US stealth bombers). The regime looks vulnerable: an aging and frail Ayatollah Khamenei, chronic water shortages, a financial crisis, and growing unrest on the streets. Iran’s rulers have survived violent protests before. Will this year be different?

15. Will peace hold in Gaza?

The fragile peace deal between Israel and Hamas and the return of Israeli hostages late last year was a triumph of American diplomacy. However, Hamas refuses to relinquish its violent grip on power in the reduced rump of Gaza which it still controls. Could Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, seek to finish the job before facing upcoming elections in October?

16. The Russia-Ukraine War

Will we finally see an end to the war in Ukraine, where hundreds of thousands of lives have been lost over four brutal years? Unlikely. Russian President Vladimir Putin has so far refused to engage meaningfully with peace talks. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will not want to be seen to capitulate too easily or lose significant amounts of territory.

17. Europe flexes its muscles

European powers will continue to spend more borrowed money on defence to counter the spectre of Russia’s westward expansion. Meanwhile, the US is cooling on its commitments to the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), causing a rift with its historical allies. Trouble is brewing between NATO members, Denmark, and the US, over Greenland, which the US wants to acquire.

18. British political realignment

Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Keir Starmer is on the back foot, while Nigel Farage’s Reform UK is on the ascendancy. The big issues: the cost of living and immigration. Could we see the collapse of the Labour government and a fundamental realignment of British politics away from the two-party model?

19. China-Taiwan tensions

The People’s Republic of China might hesitate to invade Taiwan after the recent assertion of US power in Venezuela. However, the island remains a potential flashpoint for a regional conflict in the Indo-Pacific. Taiwan is also the largest global producer of microchip processors, essential for US military hardware and artificial intelligence innovation. Worth defending.

20. Will BRICS break up?

We were led to believe that BRICS would pose a threat to American hegemony, but 2025 showed that this club of nations – of which South Africa is a part – is rather weak. Fairweather friends, Russia and China, were nowhere to be seen when Iran and Venezuela were attacked. What is BRICS for anyway?

21. Will South Africa be invited to the G20?

At this stage, it appears unlikely that South Africa will be invited to attend the next G20 Summit in Miami, Florida. The Trump administration – rightly indignant at its treatment at the Johannesburg Summit last November – has given our seat to Poland.

22. More Gen Z protests?

The youth are revolting around the world. They are fed up with corruption, government abuse, and the high cost of living. Last September’s protests in Nepal resulted in the resignation of Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli. Closer to home, unrest may flare up again in Kenya, Tanzania, and other parts of Africa. How will governments respond if protests escalate?

23. Will the South African government “take action” against dissident groups?

In 2025, Afrikaner civil society groups AfriForum and the Solidarity Movement successfully lobbied the Trump administration to highlight the South African government’s stance on race laws, its hostility to private property rights, and indifference to farm murders. President Ramaphosa recently mulled “taking action” over what he deemed to be “treasonous activities” – a clear threat to civil liberties.

24. Will the courts strike down Trump’s tariffs?

A verdict is due soon from the US Supreme Court on the legality of the so-called Trump Tariffs. South African trade negotiators in Washington have had a hard time of things and are hoping for a favourable verdict. Either way, the Trump administration will continue to push its misguided protectionist agenda.

25. What will come of the Madlanga Commission?

South Africa was gripped last year by the sordid revelations emerging from the Madlanga Commission of Inquiry, which is investigating allegations that criminal syndicates have infiltrated the highest echelons of the security establishment. For it to be meaningful, the commission’s findings should lead to prosecutions. The new National Director of Public Prosecutions will have to prove himself quickly.

26. What’s next for the NHI?

In 2026, National Health Insurance (NHI) will either die with a whimper or go out all guns blazing. Litigation from industry bodies and civil society will help to arrest NHI’s progress but expect the ideologues in the Department of Health to keep pushing their ruinous policy agenda.

Buckle up: 2026 is going to be quite a ride.

Ansara is CEO of the Free Market Foundation.