If the US Strikes Iran, What Will South Africa Do?

At the time of writing, the Trump administration has been ramping up its military deployment in the Persian Gulf, including increases in ground personnel, air force assets, missile defence systems, logistical support, and most importantly, key naval strike group capabilities. At the same time, negotiations between the United States (US) and Iran continue.

The Iranians have made positive noises about wanting a resolution to the impasse. However, the positions they have publicly placed on the table fall short even of those offered to the Obama administration, never mind the current White House’s requirements, which include limits on Iranian nuclear development, ballistic missile programmes, and terror proxy infrastructure.

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump continues his thus-far-successful strategy of communications ambiguity, saying one thing, then another, while members of his administration explore a third path. His most recent statement is that everything will be resolved within 10 or 15 days, his favourite unit of time when it comes to negotiations. Allies in the region, including Israel and Germany, have begun issuing statements and repositioning assets in anticipation of possible kinetic action.

The pattern, large military buildups alongside ongoing negotiations, mirrors the strategy most recently used against the Maduro regime. However, a military strike against Iran would be vastly more complicated than the arrest of Maduro in America’s backyard. Overall, however, the administration appears to be following through on its “Donroe Doctrine” instincts, avoiding direct confrontation with major regional hegemons such as China and Russia while securing its own hemisphere and strategic interests against smaller players.

Beyond Venezuela, further constrictions on Cuba, tougher demands on Europe regarding contributions to the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation by member nations and Greenland, the inauguration of the Board of Peace in Gaza, and the fast-tracking of the renewal of the African Growth and Opportunity Act through Congress all suggest an administration trying to remove smaller pebbles from its shoe before playing ball on wider issues.

Iran may be the largest and heaviest of these stones, but Trump appears intent on dealing with it one way or another. This level of military buildup, and the prestige attached to it, without a resolution would expose him to an accusation he particularly dislikes,; TACO, for Trump Always Chickens Out, especially after his Truth Social statement that help is on the way in response to the Iranian regime’s killing of tens of thousands of protesters.

A Decision for South Africa

Back home, South Africa will have to decide where it stands in its foreign policy toward Iran. The country offers little to South Africa in terms of trade or strategic importance. We no longer rely on Iranian oil imports, as we once did during the apartheid era’s covert arms-for-oil dealings of the 1980s. Yet South Africa continues its curious infatuation with the regime.

A few weeks ago, the Minister in the Presidency for Women, Youth, and Persons with Disabilities, Sindisiwe Chikunga, attended the 47th Commemoration of Islamic Revolution Day of the Islamic Republic of Iran. This event marks the rise of clerical rule in Iran, a regime that ushered in severe religious and economic restrictions and that continues to target women, religious minorities, and members of the LGBTI community, and to export terror infrastructure across the Middle East.

That any South African minister would choose to commemorate such a regime, especially given our own history and the rights enshrined in our Constitution, speaks volumes about the African National Congress’s priorities. This was done while the blood of protesters on the streets of Tehran was barely dry.

This follows the debacle of South Africa’s participation in naval exercises with Russia, China, and Iran in December. The skills learned in such exercises, potentially used against US or allied forces, will not be lost on American policymakers. Nor should South Africans forget that an investigation into reports that the president had ordered Iran not to participate and that these were ignored was supposed to take a week, and nothing further has been heard.

Protests

Meanwhile, hundreds of Iranians and their supporters living in South Africa last week protested outside the American consulate in Sandton, warning of the dangers of the Islamic Republic and making clear that many ordinary South Africans do not support such a regime. The protest formed part of a global wave of demonstrations called for by Reza Pahlavi, the son of the deposed Shah and one of the most recognisable figures in the Iranian diaspora.

Beyond the moral question, the geostrategic implications of South Africa’s continued alignment with Iran are becoming increasingly clear. Since October 7, the Friends of South Africa WhatsApp group has grown steadily smaller. First Hamas was curtailed, then Hezbollah demolished, then the Assad regime in Syria fell, and then Venezuela got a new president. Now Cuba and Iran are squarely in the crosshairs.

Even the most pusillanimous of international actors, the European Union, has moved to designate the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the regime’s shock troops, as international terrorists. If Iran is indeed next to fall or just to go mute, South Africa may discover that its actions over the past three decades leave it diplomatically blue ticked by much of the international community.

The question, then, is not only what Washington will do, but what Pretoria intends to do when the moment of decision arrives.