Washington Dispatch: Primaries and Tariffs

The conflict with Iran continues to unfold and its worth reading this analysis on X by the Hudson Institute’s Can Kasapoglu.

Texas primaries

Even though great global drama is playing out in the Gulf, domestic United States (US) politics continues apace. This week North Carolina and Texas held their primary elections to select candidates for the Republican and Democratic parties in advance of the mid-term elections in November. National polls suggest that the Republicans will lose control of the House of Representatives, but they could still hold onto the Senate. Events in Texas, however, should have the GOP worried.

The race for the Republican Senate candidate between the incumbent senator, John Cornyn, the current Texas Attorney General, Ken Paxton, and a congressman, Wesley Hunt. Neither of the leading candidates, Cornyn and Paxton, reached 50% of the vote, so Texas will hold a runoff election for those two in May. Senator Cornyn, who has held the Senate seat since 2002 and has been a hardworking, reliable Republican senator with many achievements under his belt. Paxton, on the other hand, is a scandal-plagued attorney general who was impeached by the Republican-controlled Texas House of Representatives for various corrupt practices.

Paxton is, however, fashioning himself into the most MAGA of the two candidates and has been leading the populist charge by suing private companies for various supposed infractions. So far, the primary race has been the costliest on record, with more than $95 million spent by the Republicans, draining the kitty for the real battle later this year against the Democrats.

The Democratic race for the Texas Senate candidate came down to James Talarico, a member of the Texas state legislature and a Presbyterian seminarian, and Jasmine Crockett, a member of the US House of Representatives. The highly motivated Democrats came out in large numbers and sensibly opted for Talarico rather than Crockett, a young radical whose debating style relies on histrionics and foul language. Talarico is undoubtedly a stronger candidate, and his win should have Republicans sweating, especially if the ethically challenged Paxton wins the Republican primary. Not that Talarico is in any way a moderate, however. His leftist policies include increased taxation, more social welfare spending, greater power for unions, the belief that there are at least six genders, and, interestingly for a seminarian, greater access to abortion.

President Donald Trump could have settled the costly Republican race by endorsing Cornyn, but for some reason he has demurred. A Democrat hasn’t won a Senate race in Texas since 1998, but this could be the year to buck that trend. If Paxton is selected by primary voters, if he loses to Talarico, and if, as a result, Republicans lose control of the US Senate in November, any legislative action will stall. Trump will also have an impossible time trying to appoint any new judges or new cabinet secretaries, which require Senate approval.

Whither the Democrats?

It remains to be seen who will emerge as the leader of the Democratic Party, but one contender is California’s governor, Gavin Newsom. The oleaginous Newsom with his slicked back hair is a political weathervane, without any real convictions. Given that, his statements this week about Israel on a leftist podcast and as reported in The New York Times, should have us all worried. Newsom compared Israel to an apartheid state and said that, if he had his druthers, would reconsider military support for the country. His statements seem to be directed by the opinions of the younger base, in other words, the future, of the Democratic party.

The apartheid charge is ludicrous on its face and easily debunked. But for Newsom to feel free to say all this while Israel is fighting alongside America to rid the world of the millenarian, death cultist threat posed by the Islamic Republic of Iran is shocking. Let us hope Newsom oozes off before he is handed any real power over foreign policy.

Ructions at the Department of Homeland Security

Meanwhile, on Thursday President Trump fired the embattled Secretary of Homeland Security, Kristi Noem, and appointed Oklahoma’s Senator Markwayne Mullin as her replacement. Noem, the former governor of South Dakota, had spent millions of dollars on television ads on illegal immigration that mostly featured herself in a transparent attempt to boost her political career. This abuse of her office along with the fact that several protesters have been killed while protesting or interfering with immigration raids as well questionable and possibly illegal tactics that saw American citizens being arrested during raids, led to Trump ditching her.

While Trump’s initial actions to stop illegal border crossings proved to be highly popular, as well as sensible and just, the immigration raids across the country have proved highly unpopular, denting Trump’s popularity. It remains to be seen whether kicking Noem to the curb will in any way restore his popularity or Republican prospects for the midterms.

Trade and Economic Uncertainty

In other news, following the Trump Administration’s loss at the Supreme Court over his use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs on all manner of imports, a federal trade judge ruled that the government must start to repay the $130 billion in tariff revenue it has collected from importers. After the Supreme Court’s decision, Trump imposed 15% tariffs on all imports, relying on the Trade Act of 1974, arguing the tariffs were necessary to address trade imbalances. This week two dozen states, filed a lawsuit in the US Court of International Trade arguing that Trump is once again exceeding the authority granted to him by Congress. Economic uncertainty thanks to Trump’s tariffs remains the order of the day.

Trump’s tariffs are remarkably unpopular. According to multiple polls more than 60% of Americans disapprove of them. Not only are the tariffs increasing the cost of goods to consumers, but they are also reducing choice and are one factor behind the disappointing economic growth. President Trump could have taken the loss at the Supreme Court as an opportunity to recalibrate his economic policy, spur higher growth, and better electoral prospects in November. Sadly, for the country, and the global economy, to say little of Republicans seeking office, he is sticking to his guns.

The asininity of Trump’s ideas about trade were explained eloquently by Adam Smith, in An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations, which was published this week 250 years ago. The British Conservative Member of Parliament, Jesse Norman, has a new book coming out later this year about Adam Smith. Writing in The Washington Post this week, Norman succinctly explains the backwardness of Trump’s trade policies:

“Perhaps Smith’s deepest insight is that a commercial society is a moral achievement. It channels self-interest into productive activity through competition under the rule of law. It lifts living standards by expanding exchange. But it is fragile. It depends on justice, on open rivalry and on citizens capable of judgment.

“Trade wars that mask domestic taxation, corporate arrangements that favor insiders and technologies that displace deliberation all test those foundations. The choice is not between markets and morals. It is between markets embedded in a framework of justice, and markets hollowed out by privilege and passivity.”

Amen to that.

Tren is a director of the Washington, DC-based Yorktown Foundation for Freedom.