Christianity arose in the lands around what now constitutes Israel, the Palestinian territories, and their surrounds – the Holy Land – but the numbers and representation of Christians have been in decline there for generations, and one day, they may not exist at all.

This fear has been expressed by Dom Nikodemus Schnabel, a Benedictine abbot based in Jerusalem, in a conversation with the Catholic charity Aid to the Church in Need (ACN). ACN is dedicated to supporting Christians facing oppression and persecution (this phenomenon has previously been reported on in The Common Sense).

Christians had shrunk in the region to a “tiny” minority ,or around 2%. In 1900, their number was estimated at around 10%.

Abbot Schnabel said that the decline in the Christian population in the region had profound implications for Christianity as a whole: “There is no Annunciation without Nazareth, no Christmas without Bethlehem, no Easter without Jerusalem.”

“If you think this is an El Dorado of Christianity, the reality is different,” he said. Even the most secularised parts of Europe, such as the Czech Republic or the former East Germany, had a greater Christian presence than this part of the world.

Nevertheless, the Holy Land hosts numerous historic Christian sites, which remain sites of religious devotion and pilgrimage. The Church of the Holy Sepulchre, for instance, is managed by six different churches for their adherents. “It is very, very colourful with many different Churches and traditions.”

Schnabel added a warning: “The paradox is clear – the place where the most important events of our faith occurred risks losing its indigenous Christians. My fear is that the Holy Land could become a kind of ‘Christian Disneyland’. The holy places will remain, with monks and priests. But there might be no Christian families, no young Christians, no ordinary Christian life.”

Christians have had an uncertain place in the region for centuries. Under Arab and Ottoman rule, they were regarded as “dhimmi”, a religious minority under the nominal protection of the state, but subject to pervasive discrimination. Over the past century, they have been caught between Jewish ethno-religious nationalism and a Palestinian nationalism that has taken on an increasingly exclusive Islamist character.

Christians in the region are, however, a relatively educated and prosperous group, and many have family or community connections abroad. These factors have contributed to a steady stream of emigration.

Israel is a rare example of a country in the Middle East with a growing Christian population. This has been driven by migrant workers and refugees. It remains to be seen whether this might be a path to revitalising the Christian presence.e.