South Africa faces a difficult summer farming season as forecasts point to widespread drought conditions, although strong agricultural supplies mean consumers are unlikely to feel the effects until 2027.

South African farmers face a challenging 2026/27 summer planting season as strengthening El Niño conditions threaten to bring below-average rainfall and higher temperatures across much of the country’s main agricultural regions.

The warning follows the latest seasonal forecast from the South African Weather Service (SAWS), which indicates that dry conditions could persist through much of the summer growing season.

Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz) and a columnist at The Common Sense, said the forecast reinforced concerns that he has raised for some time about the outlook for agriculture in South Africa and the wider Southern African region.

SAWS warned that the El Niño climate pattern was already firmly established and was expected to strengthen further over the coming months.

“The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in a strong El Niño state, and current predictions indicate that it is likely to strengthen further during the coming months and persist through much of the 2026/27 summer season,” the weather service said.

Its forecasts for the November to March period indicate an increased likelihood of below-normal rainfall across large parts of South Africa’s summer rainfall region, particularly the interior and north-eastern areas where much of the country’s summer agricultural production takes place.

Sihlobo said favourable soil moisture levels would provide farmers with some protection as planting begins, but conditions could become increasingly difficult as the season progresses.

South African farmers typically plant 4.5 million hectares of summer grains and oilseeds each year. Around 80% of this production is rain-fed, leaving crops particularly vulnerable to prolonged dry conditions.

Farmers are expected to finalise their planting decisions by the end of this month, with the rainfall outlook likely to influence the area planted and the crops selected.

The outlook is more favourable for commercial fruit and vegetable producers, who rely on irrigation and will benefit from relatively high dam levels.

For consumers, however, the immediate implications are limited. Sihlobo said South Africa has ample grain and other agricultural supplies following the 2025/26 production season, providing a buffer against any deterioration in growing conditions.

The consequences of a poor summer harvest are therefore unlikely to appear in consumer food prices immediately.

According to Sihlobo, the effects of the anticipated drought on food price inflation would only begin to emerge during 2027, when reduced agricultural production could place upward pressure on prices.