The latest calculations from the Central Energy Fund, which determines the monthly fuel price adjustments, indicate that 95 unleaded petrol could increase by about R3.16 per litre to around R30.08. Wholesale diesel is expected to rise by about R3 per litre, taking the price to a record R33.06.

The more important story, however, is what is happening to diesel. This is not primarily the result of an extraordinary rise in Brent crude. Brent is currently sitting at 102% of its 10-year average, while diesel is trading at around 186% of its average over the same period.

That gap reflects an increasingly severe shortage of diesel supply. Around 30% of global diesel export capacity has been compromised by strikes in the Middle East, disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, European strikes on Russia, and refining capacity that is already operating close to its limits. The Common Sense recently explained why diesel prices have risen so sharply.

This matters because diesel runs much of the productive economy. Trucks moving goods between cities, tractors producing food, and machinery operating on mines all depend heavily on it. The increase will therefore move well beyond the filling station as higher transport and production costs begin feeding into grocery prices, taxi fares, and the broader cost of doing business.

According to Bheki Mahlobo, in-house economist at The Common Sense, “October’s fuel price increase will push South Africa’s headline inflation closer to 5%, and a looming American diesel export ban threatens to add further inflationary pressure ahead of the final meeting of the year of the South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee, due to be held next month.”

United States President Donald Trump is considering a 90-day ban on American diesel exports in an effort to reduce record fuel prices in the United States before November’s midterm elections. Removing American supply from an already strained global market would place further upward pressure on international diesel prices, with those increases eventually reaching South Africa.

Mahlobo correctly forecast the South African Reserve Bank’s September increase of 25 basis points, which lifted the repo rate to 7.25%. He now expects the fuel price shock to push inflation closer to 5%, well above the Reserve Bank’s 3% target.

That raises the possibility of another 25-basis point increase at the bank’s final meeting of 2026 in November, which would take the repo rate to 7.50%. South African households could therefore feel the diesel shock twice, first through higher prices for transport and goods, and again through more expensive debt.