If Gauteng Were a Country, It Would Be Africa’s Third-Largest Economy

If South Africa’s provinces were independent states, three of them would rank among Africa’s ten largest economies. That simple comparison tells a powerful story about South Africa’s economic weight and potential.

Gauteng would be the third-biggest economy in Africa, with an economy of roughly $280 billion, behind only Nigeria at about $477 billion and Egypt at roughly $395 billion. It would be larger than Algeria and comfortably ahead of most sub-Saharan African economies. Basically Johannesburg, Pretoria, and the East Rand effectively generate output on a scale matched by very few African countries.

The Western Cape would also rank among Africa’s upper tier, being the eighth-biggest economy on the continent, with an economy of about $115 billion, comparable to Kenya and Ethiopia. Meanwhile KwaZulu-Natal, at roughly $110 billion, would edge into the continental top 10, at number nine.

The exercise highlights two realities. First, South Africa remains an economic giant on the continent despite years of stagnation. Strip out the politics and look at the numbers, and its leading provinces operate at a scale few African economies can match. Second, South Africa’s economy relies heavily on three provinces, with Gauteng, the Western Cape, and KwaZulu-Natal accounting for about two-thirds of South Africa’s economic output.

But South Africa also retains significant untapped economic potential. Unlike much of the developed West or parts of East Asia, where growth is structurally constrained by ageing populations and saturated capital stock, South Africa still has substantial room to expand fixed investment, raise labour participation, deepen industrial capacity, and unlock productivity gains if the right policy reforms are pursued.

Africa’s economic league table flatters South Africa. The real contest is against its own unrealised potential.

Africa’s ten biggest economies, including SA’s provinces:

1. Nigeria – $477bn
2. Egypt – $395bn
3. Gauteng – $280bn
4. Algeria – $239bn
5. Morocco – $152bn
6. Ethiopia – $126bn
7. Kenya – $118bn
8. Western Cape – $115bn
9. KwaZulu-Natal – $110bn
10. Angola – $107bn