Consumer confidence numbers are scheduled to be released tomorrow and will likely show that households remain pessimistic about South Africa’s economic prospects. In the second quarter, households faced higher petrol prices, higher electricity tariffs, and higher interest rates.

But tomorrow’s number, which will be released by the Stellenbosch University-based Bureau for Economic Research (BER), is less important than the long-term trend. Since 2009, consumer confidence has been structurally weaker, and households and businesses have not returned to the spending and investment conditions that defined the high-growth era between 1994 and 2008.

The BER Consumer Confidence Index shows whether households feel confident enough to spend. The index measures whether households are optimistic or pessimistic about the economy, their own finances, and whether now is a good time to buy big items such as furniture, appliances, or electronics. If the index is above zero, more households are optimistic than pessimistic. If it is below zero, more households are pessimistic than optimistic.

Consumer confidence stood at negative seven points in the first quarter of 2026 and is expected to weaken in today’s reading. But the more important point is that consumer confidence has remained in negative territory since the third quarter of 2019. That means more households have been pessimistic than optimistic about the economy and their own finances for almost seven years.

Between 1994 and 2008, consumer confidence averaged 3.5 points. That period had a very different consumer backdrop. The number of people employed nearly doubled, South African interest rates were cut, and household debt-to-income levels averaged 56.3%, lower than they are now. That meant many households still had room to take on credit responsibly. More households could borrow, buy homes, cars, furniture, and appliances, and had the income from rising employment to afford those purchases.

After 2009, the number of people employed stagnated and the household debt-to-income ratio rose to an average of 65.6%. That means households carried a higher debt burden relative to their incomes than they did between 1994 and 2008. They had less room to borrow, less room to absorb higher interest rates, and less room to increase spending. As a result, consumer confidence averaged negative 4.8 points after 2009.

Business confidence tells the same story from the company side of the economy. The BER Business Confidence Index measures how many surveyed business leaders are satisfied with prevailing business conditions. A reading above 50 means most business leaders are satisfied, while a reading below 50 means most are dissatisfied.

In 1994, business confidence stood near 40 points. It declined to a low of 20 points during the Asian financial crisis, then rose to reach a peak of 80 points in 2007. That meant business leaders were overwhelmingly confident about demand, sales, profitability, and the broader operating environment. As a result, companies committed capital to expand their operations. Fixed investment rose from 15.0% of South Africa’s GDP to nearly 22.0% in 2008, and South Africa recorded GDP growth of around 5% in each year between 2004 and 2007, the first time the country had done so since the 1960s.

After 2008, business confidence stagnated at about half of its peak level. Fixed investment declined to where it currently stands, at around 14.0% of GDP, and GDP growth averaged 1.1% over the past 17 years.

Today’s consumer confidence number will therefore likely confirm the same broader trend. Confidence remains too weak to support a durable recovery in fixed investment. If consumers remain cautious and businesses remain dissatisfied with operating conditions, fixed investment is likely to remain too low and South Africa’s growth prospects will remain weak.