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South Africa’s three biggest cities, Johannesburg, eThekwini, and Cape Town, recorded more than twice as many murders as the entire European Union (EU). This is despite the three cities having a combined population of around 15 million, compared with roughly 450 million people across the EU.

According to the South African Police Service (SAPS), 2 390 murders were recorded in eThekwini, 2 569 in Johannesburg and 3 594 in Cape Town for the 2024/25 reporting period. Together, the three cities recorded 8 553 murders.

By comparison, 3 953 murders were recorded across the entire EU in 2024, the latest calendar year for which EU-wide data are available.

The comparative data on murders are shown in the chart below.

The difference is even starker when adjusted for population. Johannesburg recorded an estimated 44.3 murders per 100 000 people, eThekwini 54.2, and Cape Town 71.5. Taken together, the three cities had an estimated murder rate of 56.1 per 100 000.

Across the EU, the rate was just 0.9 per 100 000.

The comparative data on murder rates are shown in the chart below.

The reporting periods do not align exactly, but both cover a full 12 months. The difference in timing does not materially alter the enormous gap between the two.

Murder is also among the most useful crimes for international comparison. Unlike many other offences, killings are rarely left unreported, while definitions of murder and intentional homicide are broadly similar across jurisdictions. Murder statistics are therefore less affected by differences in reporting behaviour and policing systems than many other categories of crime. Murder rates can thus serve as a useful proxy for broader levels of violent crime, particularly because murder is more consistently reported and recorded than most other violent offences.

The comparison with the EU is also useful precisely because of its scale. The EU comprises 27 countries and roughly 450-million people. Yet three South African cities containing around one-thirtieth of its population recorded more than twice as many murders. This is not to say that South Africa should expect European levels of violence – rather it underscores the extraordinary levels of lethal violence in South Africa’s cities.

South Africa’s very high levels of violent crime also impose costs far beyond the victims themselves. The World Bank estimates that crime costs South Africa at least 10.0% of GDP each year, including direct losses, expenditure on protection, and foregone economic opportunities. Spending on security and insurance alone amounts to roughly 4.2% of GDP.

Businesses and households must spend money on guards, armed response, fencing, alarms, tracking systems, and insurance that could otherwise be used for investment or consumption. Firms also bear the costs of stolen and damaged assets and lost opportunities to invest.

The World Bank estimates that if South African businesses had been able to redirect just one-third of their security spending towards productive investment, the country’s potential annual economic growth rate could have risen from roughly 1.0% to 1.7%, and potentially as high as 2.3% if the additional investment also improved productivity.

For context, EU governments spent 1.7% of GDP on their entire public order and safety systems in 2023. The figures are not directly comparable because the EU measure covers government expenditure while the World Bank’s South African security estimate captures different costs.

The broader point remains. South Africa’s extraordinary levels of crime force households and businesses to devote scarce resources to protecting existing lives, property, and economic activity, resources that could otherwise be used to create new wealth, investment, and jobs.

And this is to say nothing of the victims of murder and the friends and family they leave behind.

But is should also be remembered that the murder rate in South Africa will vary widely. The murder rate across South Africa’s growing number of enclaves is likely lower than what it is in Europe, but in other parts of the country the murder rate will be significantly higher. In parts of South Africa’s biggest cities, the murder rate will be three or four times higher than what it is in Cape Town, the highest of the three biggest cities.

Effectively, where the state is in control the murder rate will be high, where it is not (in enclaves for example) the murder rate will be low.