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South Africa’s formal non-agricultural economy has lost 435 000 jobs since June 2023, while the purchasing power of its total wage bill has fallen, according to the latest employment data from Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) and an analysis by The Common Sense.

The Quarterly Employment Statistics (QES) from Stats SA show that formal non-agricultural employment stood at 10.425 million in June 2026. That compares with 10.509 million in June 2025, 10.716 million in June 2024, and 10.860 million in June 2023.

Employment has therefore fallen in each successive June reading, leaving the economy with 435 000 fewer formal non-agricultural jobs than three years ago, a decline of approximately 4.0%.

The same data show that gross earnings increased from about R917 billion to approximately R1.025 trillion over the period. This amounts to a nominal increase of about R108 billion, or 11.8%.

However, Stats SA reports gross earnings at current prices, meaning the figures have not been adjusted for inflation. An analysis by The Common Sense, using Stats SA’s Consumer Price Index, finds that the June 2023 wage bill would be worth approximately R1.041 trillion in June 2026 prices.

The total wage bill therefore fell by approximately 1.6% in real terms. Employers were paying out more rands, but the purchasing power of those earnings was lower than three years earlier.

Gross earnings include salaries and wages, bonuses, and overtime payments. The figures measure the total wage bill across formal non-agricultural employment, rather than changes in individual workers’ pay.

The QES measures jobs recorded by businesses and other employers in South Africa’s formal non-agricultural economy. It differs from Stats SA’s Quarterly Labour Force Survey, which surveys households and includes people working in agriculture, informal businesses, private households, and in self-employment. The QES consequently provides a narrower measure of employment but gives a clearer indication of what has happened to formal payroll jobs.

The decline since 2023 has continued despite changes in the political and economic environment, most notably the formation of the Government of National Unity (GNU).

Bheki Mahlobo told The Common Sense, “The data are unfortunately to be expected because formal sector job growth will take its lead from the country’s overall investment and growth rates and these remain flat because the unity government, like its African National Congress predecessor ahead of it, has not made any significant headway on policy reform.”

According to Mahlobo, “Policy reform is easy to track, and the best measure is the rate of fixed investment because that number tells you whether the reform environment is actually becoming more conducive to investment. But that number has remained flat since the GNU was formed in June 2024 and is lower than it was when business and the government hatched the National Development Plan in 2012.”

The Common Sense recently reported that, had investment and growth rates kept pace with the top end of emerging-market norms, the number of people living in poverty would have been around 10 million lower.

South Africa records a national unemployment rate of over 30% and a youth unemployment rate of over 50%, compared with a global unemployment rate of under 5%.

Mahlobo argued that a series of reforms could lift growth and reverse the employment trend.

“Put port and rail infrastructure fully under private management, refit the coal fleet, tap the oil and gas reserves, strike a trade pact with America, and take proper advantage of China’s tariff-free economic access, and South Africa will have no trouble at all in lifting its growth rate to between 2% and 3%.”

He added, “From there it is a simple matter to accelerate more specific reforms, ranging from charter schools to expanded low-fee medical aid access, to get the growth rate up to 4% and maybe even 5%. Hold it there for a generation and the unemployment rate will come down to nearer 10%.”