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If South Africa’s economy had continued growing at the rate it achieved by the end of its first decade after apartheid, the average South African would be nearly twice as wealthy today as they are.

This is according to an analysis done by Bheki Mahlobo, in-house economist at The Common Sense.

Between 1994 and 2008, South Africa's economy grew at an average rate of 3.6%. Over the same period the global economy maintained a growth rate of 3.9%.

However, between 2004 and 2007, as the first post-apartheid decade concluded, South Africa’s rate of economic growth averaged just over 5.0%. Had it maintained that rate of growth from 2008 until today, the average South African would now be nearly twice as wealthy as they actually are.

On a 5.0% growth path, South Africa’s GDP per person would now be about US$10 929, compared with its actual level of roughly US$5 710 when looking at World Bank data.

That stronger growth path would have placed South Africa’s GDP per-capita number above the average of upper-middle-income economies, which sits at US$10 776 today. Upper-middle-income economies include countries such as Brazil, Mexico, China, Malaysia, and Turkey.

Had South Africa maintained a 5.0% growth rate, its GDP per-capita number also have been above the average of emerging economies (at US$9 225) and the average of BRICS economies (at US$8 608).

See the chart below, which sets out this data:

In addition to a higher GDP per capita, had the economy continued to grow at 5.0%, the unemployment rate would be much lower than its current rate of 32.7%. Mahlobo estimates that, had the economy grown at 5.0%, the unemployment rate today would be closer to 15%.

See the chart below for a comparison of unemployment rates:

Currently there are 8.1 million people classified as unemployed in South Africa, but Mahlobo estimates that, had South Africa’s economy had continued to grow at 5.0%, the total number of unemployed people would be closer to four million.

Mahlobo told The Common Sense that “the data are hopeful in the sense that they show how easy it will actually be for South Africa to become a stable and prosperous society if its government were to follow the simplest growth prescriptions.”