We are entering another busy period for table grape harvesting and exports. Export volumes and harvest quality look decent. Data from the South African Table Grape Industry show that the preliminary national crop estimate for 2026/27 is 78.4 million cartons inspected for export. This is down 4% from the previous season, which was an ample harvest, but 1% above the five-year average, indicating that the 2026/27 season is still broadly an excellent harvest. Favourable rainfall during the year and the resulting higher dam levels supported the crop.

Table grapes are among the most valuable agricultural products South Africa exports to the world. For example, in 2025, when South Africa’s overall agricultural exports reached a record US$15.1 billion, table grapes accounted for 8% of these exports, or US$1.1 billion. This accounts for both fresh and dried grapes.

After the citrus industry, which accounted for about 17% of South Africa’s agricultural exports in 2025, or US$2.5 billion, the table grape industry was South Africa’s second-largest exportable product. The product’s consistently high quality and established markets make it attractive across export markets.

Key export markets for the South African table grape industry include the Netherlands, the United Kingdom (UK), Germany, Canada, the United States (US), the United Arab Emirates, Israel, Russia, France, and Malaysia, among other countries. South Africa wants to expand its access to other markets across Asia and the Middle East. But in some of these markets, demand is weaker, and consumer buying power is lower than in European and North American markets. The table grape industry has long worried about losing the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which allows the industry to access the US market at better tariff levels.

AGOA Exclusion

If South Africa were excluded from AGOA, the industry would face an additional Most Favoured Nation tariff of about 3.4% on the existing tariffs the current US administration added to various countries. Currently, South African farming products enter the US market at 12.5% tariffs, except for some citrus and nut products, which are tariff-free. Without AGOA, these tariffs would rise to 15.9%, slightly reducing the competitiveness of South African agricultural products in the US market.

Still, one could argue that while this would be a challenging path, it would not necessarily be as catastrophic as the sector has faced in the past, when it faced much higher US tariffs and still managed to compete. For example, in 2025, the South African farming sector faced tariffs of about 30%. Still, exports to the US were strong. South Africa’s agricultural exports to the US in 2025 totalled US$504 million, down 3% from the previous year.

This slight annual decline doesn’t mean the previous 30% “Liberation Day tariffs” didn’t hurt our agricultural sector. Exports to the US improved in the second quarter when tariffs paused. Still, this context matters as we consider the possible exclusion of South Africa from AGOA access.

We are not trying to downplay the issue, but we felt it was important to consider these data in the event of such a challenge. For this reason, widening access in the Canadian market is even more important for South Africa, alongside broadening access with the UK and other European markets. This is key not only for the table grape industry, but also for other fruits and nuts, along with the wine industry, which follows the same trade pattern as table grapes.

Beyond these trade issues, another important matter is ensuring South Africa’s ports operate efficiently. This has been the major headache for the table grape industry for some time. Last season, some growers had to move some volume they typically export through the Port of Cape Town to the Eastern Cape. But moving the volume to the Eastern Cape in the current environment of higher fuel prices will be even more costly to the industry. Thus, Transnet, working with other logistics stakeholders and organised agriculture, must intensify its efforts to help the industry.

-Wandile Sihlobo is South Africa’s Agriculture and Land Envoy, and the Chief Economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa. His new book, “Balance and Reason: A Growth Path for South Africa’s Agriculture”, will be in stores from November 9, 2026.