The Most Valuable Piece of Investor Intelligence in the World Today

What if the artificial intelligence (AI) bulls are right and that is precisely the problem? This is the question posed in a striking thought experiment titled The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis, a fictional memo purportedly from June 2028 by Alap Shah, an analyst at Citrini, an investment research firm.

The premise is simple but unsettling and reads like a post-mortem on today’s exuberance. AI keeps improving, productivity surges, corporate profits expand, the S&P 500 soars, and yet the economy underneath begins to fracture, with Shah’s memo laying out the potential consequences.

In Shah’s scenario, AI agents rapidly displace white-collar workers, first in software and consulting, then across finance and other services. Layoffs initially boost margins and fuel equity gains. But as displaced professionals move into lower-paying roles, wage compression spreads. The consumer economy, long anchored by high earners, weakens, while American unemployment reaches 10% (five times higher than the current 2%). Shah suggests there would be “ghost GDP” – output that appears in national accounts but does not circulate through households.

Financial stress follows. Private credit structures falter as AI erodes incomes, affecting things such as mortgage markets, which are built on the assumption of continued stable white-collar incomes, and begin to wobble as income expectations shift. Policymakers struggle to keep up with the labour market distortions created by the AI revolution as politics lags the pace of technological change.

The piece has rattled equity markets amid a continued sell-off of software company stocks. the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF has fallen 22% year to date compared to the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500, which are both up around 2% for 2026. 

Arguably the most valuable piece of investor intelligence in the world today is the answer to the question of what the long-term impact of AI will be on economies and markets.

To answer that question, The Common Sense did the logical thing and turned to its own in-house bespoke large language model AI, which provided the following advice:

“AI is expected to significantly boost productivity by automating tasks that were once manual or routine. This automation will bring major improvements in sectors like manufacturing, logistics, healthcare, and finance. In manufacturing, for instance, AI-driven automation can increase efficiency, reduce costs, and enhance output. As businesses integrate AI technologies, economies in tech-heavy sectors could experience substantial growth.

“While AI will create new roles in fields like data science, AI maintenance, and ethical oversight, it will also make certain jobs obsolete, especially in customer service, transport, and accounting. The displacement of workers due to AI is a key challenge for policymakers and businesses, requiring adjustments in workforce planning. The nature of work may shift too, with an increase in freelance and remote work facilitated by AI-enhanced tools and platforms.

“In financial markets, AI will revolutionise investment strategies, guiding decisions with algorithms and models that enable faster and more efficient markets. Hedge funds and asset managers, for example, will be able to analyse large datasets in real-time to optimise investments. AI-powered technologies like robo-advisers will democratise investment management, making sophisticated portfolio strategies accessible to individual investors and shifting capital toward sectors like software, biotech, and green technologies.

“AI will also disrupt traditional industries, particularly those reliant on manual labour or standard processes. Retail, for example, will integrate AI in areas such as smart logistics, inventory management, and personalised shopping experiences. In healthcare, AI-driven diagnostics, personalised treatment, and drug discovery will revolutionise patient care while potentially disrupting established practices. Industries that successfully adopt AI, such as tech, pharmaceuticals, and advanced manufacturing, will likely enjoy a competitive edge, while those that fail to innovate may face decline.

“The rise of AI will drive new waves of competition and innovation. Companies that adopt AI effectively may capture greater market share, while smaller firms and start-ups could lead disruptive innovations. However, large corporations such as Google, Amazon, and Microsoft, with their advanced AI infrastructure, are likely to maintain dominance.

“AI will optimise global supply chains, improving efficiency, resilience, and cost-effectiveness. Smart manufacturing systems, predictive analytics, and AI-driven logistics could lead to smoother operations and reduced disruptions in global trade. However, this could also shift production centres to regions that are rich in AI infrastructure, leaving some developing economies at a disadvantage unless they modernise their systems.

“AI has great potential to address environmental challenges. AI applications in energy management, renewable energy optimisation, and resource efficiency could significantly contribute to tackling climate change. However, AI’s environmental impact, particularly its energy consumption for training models, must be carefully managed to ensure sustainability.

“AI also holds the promise of improving quality of life in areas like education, healthcare, and governance. AI-powered systems could provide tailored solutions to individuals' needs, offering personalised experiences in everything from learning to healthcare. However, equitable access to these benefits remains a challenge, as AI’s advantages could disproportionately favour developed nations or wealthier sectors.

“Over the next decade, AI will reshape economies and markets, driving growth, innovation, and efficiency. While the benefits of AI are clear, it also poses significant challenges, such as job displacement, inequality, and regulatory complexity. With the right policies and investments in education, infrastructure, and ethical AI practices, AI can be a powerful force for global prosperity. However, failure to address these challenges could lead to disruptions in the workforce and broader economic systems.”