Cape Town Overtakes Jo’burg in Number of Taxpayers as Economic Gravity Shifts

South Africa’s economic centre of gravity may be shifting and the latest taxpayer data suggest the change is no longer anecdotal.

Latest figures on assessed taxpayers across the country’s eight metros from the South African Revenue Service show that Cape Town has overtaken Johannesburg in absolute numbers. In 2023, Cape Town recorded 912 168 assessed taxpayers, compared with Johannesburg’s 915 311. By the following year, Cape Town had grown to 975 779, while Johannesburg reached 970 892.

That puts Cape Town ahead by just fewer than 5 000 assessed taxpayers. The margin is narrow, but symbolically powerful. For decades, Johannesburg was unambiguously the country’s economic heart. Now, on one of the clearest measures of formal economic participation, it has been surpassed.

The number of assessed taxpayers tells you where formal economic activity and declared income are concentrated, not simply where people live.

The growth rates tell an even sharper story. Cape Town’s assessed taxpayer base expanded by 7.0% between 2023 and 2024. Johannesburg managed 6.1%. While that difference may appear modest, in a metro of nearly a million assessed taxpayers it translates into thousands of people. More importantly, it reflects relative momentum.

A number of other metros posted stronger growth than Johannesburg. The proportion of assessed taxpayers grew most strongly in eThekwini (Durban), where the number of assessed taxpayers grew by 10% between 2023 and 2024. Ekurhuleni (East Rand) rose by 8.1%. Tshwane (Pretoria) grew by 7.2%, while Buffalo City (East London) recorded 7.4%.

Only Nelson Mandela Bay (Gqeberha, formerly Port Elizabeth), with 5.5%, and Mangaung (Bloemfontein), with 6.7%, grew at a slower rate than Johannesburg.

Johannesburg remains a giant. With nearly one million assessed taxpayers it is still a big and important economic centre. But its slower expansion suggests strain. Years of infrastructure decay, power instability, governance failures, and rising municipal rates with little in return have weighed on business confidence and made some of the city’s inhabitants look for greener pastures, often in the Cape. Capital is mobile. So are skilled taxpayers.

Cape Town’s rise is not accidental. The city has positioned itself as administratively stable, comparatively well managed, and investor friendly. That perception, reinforced by visible service delivery, appears to be translating into tax base growth.

None of this means Johannesburg is finished. Economic gravity does not shift overnight. Corporate headquarters, financial services depth, and historical clustering effects still matter. But tax data are hard to dismiss. They reflect where income is earned and spent.

For the first time in modern South African history, the country’s largest concentration of assessed taxpayers is no longer in Johannesburg. If this trend persists, the symbolic and practical implications will be profound. The centre of gravity may not have fully moved yet. But it is clearly tilting south.