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Despite the doom-mongering around the Iran war, global stock markets are booming, showing strong growth numbers both over the past year and the past three weeks.

In the United States (US), the S&P 500 is up nearly 30% over the past year and has risen almost 10% since 27 March. The Dow Jones Industrial Index is up just under 20% over the past year and by over 7% since 27 March.

In London, the FTSE 100 has surged by 30% in the last year and 6% since late March.

In Johannesburg the All Share Index has seen a remarkable 35% increase in the past year, with a 7% rise since 27 March.

This bullish market performance has persisted despite headlines warning of market catastrophes linked to the Iran war and snarled-up oil supply chains. In large part, this is because, to date, the reality of the effects of the war has been far more muted than some of the more hysterical media reporting would have you believe.

While oil and petrol prices appear very high, calculations done by The Common Sense show that once these prices are adjusted for inflation, they are, in fact, not much out of line with their moving averages of the past fifteen years.

Data from several institutions, and most recently from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), confirm the sense that for the time being at least, the global economy is not in crisis and that global economic growth forecasts have remained largely unchanged from those of late 2025 – see The Common Sense’s report on the latest IMF data here.

Currencies have also held up relatively strongly despite the war. The rand, for example, is trading at levels more than 10% stronger than a year ago and has strengthened by just over 3% since 27 March.

This divergence between the narrative of doom surrounding the war and actual economic and market data could change if the conflict drags on for an extended period or if oil prices escalate well beyond current levels.

When the war began, The Common Sense published a set of scenarios for how it might end. One of those, the infamous scenario six, described a long, drawn-out ground war that would drive oil prices to actual record highs and hold them there deep into 2026, triggering an actual recessionary crisis. However, The Common Sense has consistently argued that nearer-term exit points for the Iran war are more likely than a prolonged conflict that would risk an actual global economic crisis. Its view remains that, on the balance of the available evidence, the conflict will follow its scenarios two and four, which see the US chiefly exiting the theatre, while Iran moderates somewhat on Hormuz.