It is desperate times at the ANC. Cyril Ramaphosa has managed his party’s leadership transition about as well as he has managed everything else. His party peers are frightened at the thought that their next leader may be either Paul Mashatile, who they think is dangerous, or Fikile Mbalula, who they think is a clown. Yet polls show that over half of voters want Ramaphosa gone, but if that delivers either of his likely successors, party support is likely to dive. If this is the “long game” plan that the B-team has had so much to say about these past seven years, it does not seem to have been a very good plan.

The ANC should shiver at a story Helen Zille tells of how, as a young journalist, she was struck by the power that dripped off the old Nats. They bestrode the world like colossi. Now there is nothing left of any of that; it is literally all gone. Stand back from the noise of the moment and look at the longer-term trend lines, and this is surely where the ANC is headed. It is only a matter of time now.

That could still be a while, however. Tony Leon says that the “weak can be long in politics”. Yet even with the help of South Africa’s wealthy elites, who have sprung into action to save Ramaphosa, he is so inept that even Leon’s cautionary note may be tested.

Those seeking to save Ramaphosa should pay attention to what Fidel Castro had to say on the subject. Castro, informed legend has it, cautioned Nelson Mandela that Ramaphosa was a useless chap who would wreck the ANC. This was influential in the decision that saw Ramaphosa passed over as Mandela’s successor. Castro would have known, as the Cuban and Soviet intelligence services watched the ANC closely.

What is the point of saving him? When Zuma was in command, the usual benchmark of the worst crisis ever to befall South Africa, the country created around 250 000 net new jobs per annum. Ramaphosa has struggled to get to 100 000. Last week, he told Parliament that the mining industry was an example of the success of BEE. Fixed investment in mining exploration has fallen 80% since 1994! The industry has shed over a third of its jobs! Castro was being kind.

Much too kind, if you consider Ramaphosa’s address to the nation last week. At one point, he even read out a list of the charges against himself!

Just read this précis.

“These allegations related to a theft that took place at my farm in February 2020. […] The independent panel concluded that the […] president may have committed serious misconduct and a serious violation of the Constitution. The Panel concluded that I, as the president, may have acted in a way that was inconsistent with my office and may have exposed myself to a situation involving a conflict between my official responsibilities and my private business. The National Assembly voted not to refer the independent panel’s report to an impeachment committee that would consider the veracity and, where required, the seriousness of the charges contained in the motion. […] The Constitutional Court has now ruled […] that the vote the National Assembly exercised on this matter in 2022 should be set aside. […] The Court has accordingly ordered that the report of the independent panel be referred to the Impeachment Committee of the National Assembly. […] Since a criminal complaint was laid against me in June 2022, I have consistently maintained that I have not stolen public money, committed any crime nor violated my oath of office.”

That could be the opening statement of the prosecution! Which dimwit told him to do that? The truth is one thing, but the politics dictated that he boldly and only say he is innocent, and then shift the focus away from him by saying that he is under attack by malevolent forces seeking to oppose his reforms and clean-up of government, and then win public support by saying that this was therefore not just an attack on him but one on all South Africans.

After reading the charges, he then said he won’t resign. At the time, few decent and serious people had publicly said he should: not business, not the DA, not his party, not the diplomats, and not the press. So where did that idea come from? It must have been an echo of his instinct the last time this issue came up, and it scared him so much that he was ready to pack it all in.

The former IFP MP Mario Oriani-Ambrosini related how Ramaphosa was fond of the story that the way to deal with the whites was to slowly raise the temperature in the pot so that they didn’t notice until it was too late that they were getting stewed. Thinking people who knew about Ramaphosa, the Soviets first among them, always suspected the pot was on the other foot, as it now turns out to be.

What happened to his magic mystery money couch? A forensic estimate is that the sum of money hidden was too large to have been concealed under the couch cushions. The couch would have had to have been cut open and the money packed inside before it was sealed again. But the couch has now disappeared, after apparently being sent for refurbishment.

And where did the money in that couch come from? Arthur Fraser, the former spy boss, suggests it came from a courier close to Ramaphosa who had collected it on trips around the world, including the Middle East. By Ramaphosa’s own telling, the courier was Sudanese and a person with links to several Middle Eastern governments. Spooky. And his government has been so very occupied with the Middle East of late.

How bad will Mashatile or Mbalula be? That depends on who you are. If you are poor and black and therefore likely to vote ANC/EFF/MK, the outlook is likely terrible. Investment will stay down and you won’t find a job, and if the printing presses are started, you’ll be thrown into desperate poverty. If you are middle class, black or white, and therefore likely to vote for the DA, the outlook is likely fine in a relative sense. South Africa’s enclave phenomenon will offer you a very high standard of living likely far into the future, and if you are well hedged on the rand, your kids, your career, and your location, then in a material sense, you don’t have much to worry about.

What about Patrice Motsepe? Yes. He can turn it all around, but the ANC has not taken a wise decision in its own best interests for seven years. And would he do it now? He will be hounded by accusations that he did it to keep his brother-in-law out of jail.

The only remaining alternative is to go and see Geordin Hill-Lewis and commit to sensible reforms, as this newspaper suggested last week. But Ramaphosa won’t do that because Castro had him right from the start.