Today's Constitutional Court ruling marks a catastrophic turning point for President Cyril Ramaphosa. The apex court found that Parliament’s 2022 vote to block the Section 89 Independent Panel report on the Phala Phala scandal was both unlawful and unconstitutional. The court’s decision means that the report, which involves the theft of foreign currency hidden in furniture at the president’s Phala Phala farm in 2020, must now be referred to an impeachment committee for formal investigation.

Ramaphosa’s presidency was built on the promise of tackling corruption within government, a message that resonated with voters and shaped his political identity. Yet, in a cruel twist, he now stands on the verge of featuring as the subject of the most significant corruption investigation the country has ever seen. The scandal, which was initially downplayed and suppressed by his party, now threatens not just his reputation but the very foundation of its diminishing grip on power.

The timing could hardly be worse. The ruling comes just months before the crucial 2026 municipal elections in November, where Ramaphosa’s party is already facing a steep uphill battle. After losing its national majority in 2024, the African National Congress (ANC) is polling poorly, and the president’s ability to lead the country – and his party – through a period of electoral instability is being severely tested.

Ramaphosa now faces a terrible choice.

One option is to resign, sparing himself the public humiliation of testifying under oath before the impeachment committee. Testifying is likely to be savage as opposition parties make political hay of the man in the run-up to the November polls. Worse for him is that informed sources suggest he may not have any compelling answers about how he came into the possession of the cash. A resignation would allow him to avoid deeper humiliation, although it would not absolve him of potential criminal charges, which could lead to imprisonment if he is convicted – a now plausible, if incredible, prospect for the man whom many South Africans thought might restore probity to government.

This newspaper understands that Ramaphosa has previously been prepared to resign over this very scandal and was only held back from that by the pleas of his Cabinet colleagues. Should he go now, they will be at sea, given that, short of Patrice Motsepe, the ANC has no viable leadership candidates capable of staunching the vote losses that his exit will surely accelerate.

Alternatively, Ramaphosa may choose to fight the impeachment process. The committee dedicated to investigating him is likely then to call him to testify under oath, forcing him to confront the allegations head-on. Given that the ANC no longer has a majority in Parliament, its options to command the committee, split it, or delay its work are limited compared to what was the case in 2022, when the party conspired to suppress the report into the president’s alleged wrongdoing. But even if the committee completes its work and then recommends the president’s removal, obtaining the required two-thirds majority (267 out of 400 votes) in the National Assembly will be no simple task – and the president may just survive, although as a beleaguered and weakened figure. The factional nature of the ANC, however, read against the ambivalent attitude of the new Democratic Alliance leadership towards the Government of National Unity, and the glee with which Messrs Zuma and Malema would dip their political spears into the president’s blood, means that obtaining those votes is not out of the question either.

And even if impeachment is somehow avoided, the prospect of a motion of no confidence being called in the president, a much simpler process to remove him requiring a lower vote threshold in Parliament, may be on the cards as the opposition presses home its advantage of undoing the person who remains the ANC’s most important electoral asset.

At best, therefore, it appears now as if, even if he manages to cling to office, Ramaphosa may do so only as a deeply damaged and humiliated leader – his political career brought down by allegations of the very corruption he had once vowed to eliminate.