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Establishment media publications have for months shot down the idea of Patrice Motsepe’s candidacy to become leader of the African National Congress (ANC). This newspaper has, however, reported that Motsepe is a candidate and will consider running for the leadership of the party, if a clean way through the party’s next electoral conference can be found. It has also reported that Motsepe is far and away the most popular candidate to succeed Cyril Ramaphosa and that, should he stage a successful succession run, he may take a series of simple decisions that lift South Africa’s rate of economic growth sufficiently to restore the party’s national majority.

Multiple well-placed people with knowledge of events have told The Common Sense the following:

• •That there is a sense that it is wise to steer clear of any formal association with the ANC at this time, given the electoral disaster that awaits the party in November;
• •That, in the aftermath of that election, the hard realisation that it faces an existential battle will dawn across the party, and that, under its current leadership, its support could fall to between 20% and 30%, and the party could be overtaken by both the Democratic Alliance (DA) and the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP) by the 2029 election;
• •That the November result will make clear that the internal party candidates to succeed Ramaphosa, including Fikile Mbalula and Paul Mashatile, are responsible for the weakened state of the ANC and cannot turn the ship around; and
• •That all the above points form a basis from which a successful leadership campaign might be launched.

This newspaper’s correspondents did, however, make it clear that the leadership congress set for December 2027 will be both dirty and corrupt, that the Motsepe camp has no appetite to engage in any of that, and will instead look to alternative strategies, but that no single clear approach has been determined. A number of ideas on how to win the conference have circulated, including using the existential crisis facing the party to force an uncontested race.

Data previously published by The Common Sense in conjunction with the Social Research Foundation shows that Motsepe remains the most popular pick for ANC leader amongst all voters, black voters, and ANC voters. It can now go further to show that Motsepe also leads the race in critical ANC markets including rural voters, township voters, informal settlement voters, and amongst MKP and Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) voters.

The chart below sets out that data in each of those markets compared to that for Paul Mashatile, Fikile Mbalula, Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, and Senzo Mchunu.

Frans Cronje told The Common Sense that, “The data on Mr Motsepe is very promising for the ANC, and that should it pick him as its leader, there is a relatively straightforward path for the ANC back to a majority, should he use the office of party leader, and later country president, to take firm decisions in favour of reforms that lift the growth rate towards just 3% of GDP… I would go so far as to say that, with that level of growth, and with Mr Motsepe at the helm, and given how popular confidence in the GNU is slipping, the ANC would then have a good chance of restoring its national majority.”

Notably, Cronje was sceptical of the broadly held 2018 view that Ramaphosa was a reform-minded leader who would preside over an economic recovery.

Last week, The Common Sense reported that confidence in South Africa’s Government of National Unity (GNU) has begun to slip, given that the ANC and DA have jointly failed to get behind reforms necessary to lift South Africa’s rate of economic growth past that of the pre-May 2024 status quo.

According to Cronje, “That slippage we see in support for the GNU is further to Mr Motsepe’s advantage as it provides some prospect for the ANC to stall DA growth and win back the support the ANC is currently haemorrhaging in Gauteng, and some of what it has surrendered from the middle classes.”

Asked what would occur if Motsepe did not run, Cronje was emphatic, “Then we are in a situation where the DA and MKP will rival the ANC to become South Africa’s biggest party, and with such a three-way split, the enclavisation trend will accelerate.”

According to Cronje, “The Motsepe prospect poses a serious conundrum for investors looking at South Africa as it means they cannot take a one-way bet that major trends will continue heading downhill as the rand, bonds, property, and the stock market may all make a U-turn if he runs, and wins, but there will be little certainty on that run, and its success prospects until pretty late in the process.”