The local government election is just over two months away. As electioneering heats up, every serious political party is going to be turning out in force in the coming weeks. However, how many of them are thinking about the negotiations that may need to take place after the election?

Within two weeks of the election results being announced, municipalities across the country will be expected to convene their newly elected councils and elect mayors. That is an incredibly short amount of time. Particularly if they there is a need for coalitions that they will be stable and stand the test of time.

With over hundred municipalities and more than half of the metro municipalities expected to have no clear party majorities in place, they will need some kind of agreement in place to ensure that that they are governed appropriately between parties.

This is an incredibly important process because major political parties will need to weigh up certain questions. Are they going to allow local structures to negotiate one-on-one agreements in every part of the country? Or are they going to seek nationally binding agreements with other parties that channel down to local structures to help create order out of the chaos?

These are two critical questions. For minority parties who only have a presence in a limited number of municipalities the answer is obvious. They will seek to try and extract as much position and power as possible on an individual case-by-case basis. They will have no strength in numbers. They will want individual negotiations.

For larger political parties who will hold the numbers across a multitude of municipalities, entering such individual arrangements would only work to their disadvantage. But these parties would likely have provincial and regional structures and so they may want to empower these parts of their organisation with the power to negotiate agreements that form part of a broader national binding contract.

Principles

The next question that is worth asking is, what exactly would national coalition agreements that speak to local government look like?

Well, firstly, there would have to be some agreed-upon principles. These would include the kind of values and behaviours that would shape such agreements. It would have to be an understanding in terms of the provision of quality basic service delivery, excellent financial management, zero tolerance for corruption, and a commitment towards growing local economies.

But what about political power? How exactly can this be managed? Some may think it is as simple as merely getting together and deciding in terms of percentage who will receive what position. But it might not be as simple as that.

For example, a foundational principle of such agreements may be that the biggest party occupies the mayoral seat and the second-biggest is then the deputy. Thereafter power across portfolios will be negotiated based on what different parties in a coalition attained.

But what about confidence-and-supply arrangements that could result in minority governments? For example, this may happen if one political party emerges as the largest in terms of votes but fails to have the numbers for a full majority. Instead of going into government with them, a coalition partner must instead to offer support them in Council and occupy the seat of Speaker and offering only support with votes in Council but none in terms of the executive. This may be a difficult arrangement to manage, particularly if it results in a minority government.

Alternative

An alternative arrangement may occur whereby the party with the largest votes does not see any partners worth going into coalition with because the risks of working with nefarious characters and malfeasance are too high. Such a party may then choose to remain in opposition and allow a multi-party coalition to arise and opt to instead hold them to account.

Both of the above potential outcomes will produce poor governance outcomes for a multitude of reasons. A primary reason is that officials in municipalities themselves will have an interest in playing politics if there is a large multi-party coalition. Another would be in that in a minority government you are always effectively one council meeting away from a vote where the entire government could be removed.

This is why a national framework among major parties who occupy significant majorities in the hung municipalities will need to be considered. In the absence of that, the real risk of political side deals will occur, which will create chaos across much of local government. Depending on the election result, it may even require a renegotiation of the foundations of the Government of National Unity (GNU), particularly if one party has found themselves in a significantly stronger position than the other.

Remember, there will be two weeks after the results are announced. This is an immediate and real time pressure and the kind that will force urgency and engagement. Political parties that have given thought to this well beforehand, that have ironed out what is important to them, and what they will and won’t accept, will be the best prepared for these scenarios.

Jordan Griffiths is an adviser to Deputy Finance Minister Ashor Sarupen.